CATL(SZ:300750) Chuang Yuan Qi Huo·2025-07-04 08:11Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The better-than-expected US non-farm data has significantly reduced the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut, while US stocks have shown an independent upward trend. Attention should be paid to the possible tariff agreements the US may reach with other countries before July 9. For China, the second-phase trade negotiation between China and the US has been implemented, with the restrictions on chip design EDA and ethane lifted, and the tariff negotiation related to China may be postponed to August. The domestic A-share market remains in a structural stock game. Although the index rebounded on Thursday, the trading volume shrank, and the index may face divergence in the short term. The index will generally fluctuate between 3400 - 3500, and the dumbbell strategy remains unchanged [2][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis Overseas Market - US non-farm employment in June was 147,000, higher than the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 144,000; the unemployment rate was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2%, indicating the resilience of the US labor market and significantly reducing the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. The probability of a 25BP rate cut in July dropped to 4.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 25BP rate cut in September dropped to 64%. Affected by the decline in rate cut expectations, the US dollar index rose, the yields of short - and long - term US bonds increased, gold prices fell, crude oil prices closed down, but the three major US stock indexes rose independently, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose, and the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciated. Attention should be paid to US tariff news as the July 9 tariff suspension deadline approaches [1][6]. Domestic Market - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened higher, fluctuated, and rose 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.17%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.9%. The market showed a volatile recovery trend. Blue - chip stocks such as banks dragged down the market, showing a pattern of stronger Shenzhen and weaker Shanghai. Ningde Times had the greatest contribution to the rise of the ChiNext Index. Sector rotation continued, and the sustainability of the marine economy and anti - involution sectors was poor. The consumer electronics sector strengthened, mainly stimulated by the easing of Sino - US trade relations. Although the technology sector remained active, the lack of incremental funds in the market made it difficult to drive up. In terms of sectors, electronics, power equipment, medicine and biology, communication, and building materials led the gains, while coal, transportation, steel, and petroleum and petrochemicals led the losses. There were 3,270 rising stocks and 1,863 falling stocks in the whole market [1][7]. 2. Important Information - US Treasury Secretary Besent warned countries not to delay trade negotiations, stating that tariffs could return to the level of April 2, and about 100 countries are expected to receive at least 10% reciprocal tariffs. Trump will decide whether to extend the July 9 deadline. - Trump will send letters to trade partners as early as Friday local time to inform them of unilateral tariff rates. - EU aims to reach a "principled agreement" with the Trump administration before July 9; Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru said Trump may be misled on tariff issues; Indonesia will sign a $34 billion trade and investment memorandum of understanding with the US; Canadian Finance Minister said Canada can reach an optimal trade agreement with the US and there will be no more digital tax. - The US "Big and Beautiful" bill was passed in the House of Representatives with two Republican lawmakers defecting, and Trump will sign it early on Saturday. - Trump had a phone call with Putin to discuss the Middle East situation and Russia - Ukraine negotiations, and also plans to have a phone call with Zelensky on Friday to discuss military aid issues. - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that rare earths will not be a problem between China and the EU. - The US - Vietnam trade agreement will impose a 40% tariff on transshipment goods, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that relevant agreements should not harm third - parties. - The State Council issued a document to replicate and promote 77 pilot measures of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone [8][9][10]. 3. Futures Market Tracking - The report provides detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and positions of various stock index futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volume changes, and position changes [15][16]. 4. Spot Market Tracking - The report presents the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading volumes, and valuations of major domestic stock indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, as well as the performance of various sectors and the impact of market styles on different indexes [39][40][41]. 5. Liquidity Tracking - The report shows the central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest rate level, including currency injection, currency withdrawal, and net currency injection, as well as the interest rates of different tenors of Shibor [54][55][56].