KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Dongguan Securities·2025-07-04 08:36Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [52]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the liquor sector is stabilizing, with a focus on the performance of various segments during the peak consumption season. It notes that the white liquor market is experiencing a slight decline but may see demand recovery in the second half of the year as economic conditions improve [4][48]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer sentiment and seasonal demand, particularly in the beer and soft drink segments, which are expected to benefit from the summer season [4][49]. - Key companies to watch include high-end liquor brands like Kweichow Moutai (600519) and other segments such as seasoning products, dairy, and snacks, which are expected to show strong performance due to favorable market conditions [4][50]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW food and beverage industry index rose by 0.33% from June 20 to July 3, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 2.92 percentage points [11]. - Most sub-sectors underperformed the CSI 300 index, with the baking sector showing the highest increase of 4.01%, while the soft drink sector had the largest decline of 2.46% [13][14]. - Approximately 85% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns during this period, with notable gainers including Jindawei (+18.71%) and Ximai Food (+15.36%) [15]. 2. Industry Data Tracking 2.1 Liquor Sector - Prices for major liquor brands such as Feitian Moutai and Guojiao 1573 have decreased, indicating market adjustments [21]. 2.2 Seasoning Sector - Prices for raw materials like sugar and glass have shown mixed trends, with sugar prices increasing slightly while soybean meal prices have decreased [24]. 2.3 Beer Sector - Prices for barley and aluminum have increased, while corrugated paper prices have decreased, reflecting changes in production costs [30]. 2.4 Dairy Sector - The average price of fresh milk remained stable, while the pork wholesale price also held steady, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation [35][37]. 3. Industry News - Recent reports indicate a slight decline in the national white liquor price index, with specific categories showing varied performance [39][40]. - The beverage and tea manufacturing sector has seen a revenue increase, suggesting a positive trend in profitability [41]. 4. Company Announcements - Kweichow Moutai has announced share repurchase plans, reflecting confidence in its long-term performance [44]. - Other companies in the snack and soft drink sectors have also made announcements regarding price adjustments and government subsidies, indicating proactive management strategies [46][47].