CMS(SH:600999) CMS·2025-07-04 11:58Macroeconomic Outlook - The U.S. trade and fiscal policies are expected to become clearer in Q3 2025 after significant fluctuations in H1 2025, with potential easing of trade policies and a new budget coordination bill possibly being implemented by July[2] - The U.S. inventory cycle is shifting towards active destocking, with the impact of tariffs on trade relations likely to be permanent, reducing the likelihood of large-scale replenishment by U.S. companies[2] Capital Expenditure Cycle - The global capital expenditure cycle, which began in 2021, is anticipated to enter a downward phase in H2 2025, with overall capital expenditure in 2024 expected to decline slightly compared to 2023[3] - The U.S. capital expenditure increase is nearing its peak, as evidenced by high import levels of water and electricity infrastructure materials in Q3 2024[3] U.S. Stock Market - The U.S. stock market has shown a recovery since mid-April 2025, with ongoing momentum supported by advancements in artificial intelligence and favorable economic policies from the "Great Beauty Act"[3] - The valuation of U.S. stocks is expected to continue rising, even if the risk-free interest rate does not decline significantly[4] U.S. Bond Market - The space for interest rate cuts is constrained, with U.S. Treasury yields unlikely to decline significantly; however, stablecoins may facilitate liquidity release[4] - The U.S. is likely to maintain a weak dollar to alleviate the concentration of U.S. assets globally, which could help mitigate the risk of asset bubbles[6] A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to see an upward trend in July 2025, driven by fiscal stimulus and resilient consumer demand, despite anticipated export pressures[7] - The median increase in stock prices for the first half of 2025 is around 5%, indicating a positive market sentiment and potential for further gains[8] Real Estate Market - New home sales in 39 cities have seen a year-on-year decline of 14% as of late June 2025, while second-hand home sales have shown a smaller decline of 1%[27] - The inventory cycle for unsold properties has lengthened, indicating a potential slowdown in the real estate market[27] Investment Strategy - The banking sector is projected to experience a slight increase in net profit by 1.3% in 2025, with revenue growth expected to stabilize around 0%[25] - Long-term investment strategies should focus on balanced allocations across recovery, growth, and dividend-paying banks, given the current valuation discounts in the banking sector[25]