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估值周观察(7月第1期):拔估值,见新高

Global Market Overview - The global equity markets showed mixed performance with US stocks generally rising while Japanese stocks declined. The Eurozone exhibited varied results, and Hong Kong stocks faced overall pressure, although the Hang Seng Mid-cap index rose by 1.72% [2][8] - Valuation changes were moderate, with the German DAX index declining by 1.02% but experiencing a valuation expansion of 1.52x, indicating significant earnings downgrades. Valuation percentiles for various indices remain at historical highs, with the PE ratio reaching 100% [2][8] A-share Market Analysis - The A-share core broad indices collectively rose with moderate valuation expansion. Specifically, the CSI 100 and SSE 50 led with increases of 1.48% and 1.21%, respectively. Value stocks performed notably well, with the National Value, Large-cap Value, and Mid-cap Value indices all rising over 1.7% [2][26] - As of July 4, the PE, PB, and PS ratios of major A-share indices were generally positioned within the 90%-100% percentile range for the past year, with PCF ratios at 90%-92%. The overall valuation levels for large-cap growth stocks were superior, while the valuation attractiveness of National Value and Large-cap Value was relatively low [27][26] Industry Performance - Most primary industries experienced gains, with steel leading significantly with over 5% increase. Other sectors such as construction materials, banking, and pharmaceuticals also saw gains exceeding 3.6%. Valuations mostly expanded moderately, aligning with stock price movements, with PE expansions exceeding 1x in sectors like steel, construction materials, defense, pharmaceuticals, media, and comprehensive industries [50][49] - The essential consumer sector showed slightly better valuation attractiveness. The banking sector's valuations are at historical highs, with PE, PB, and PS ratios at 100% in both 1-year and 3-year dimensions. In contrast, the downstream essential consumer sectors, represented by food and beverage, and agriculture, exhibited significant valuation recovery potential [2][50] Emerging Industries - Emerging industries displayed mixed performance, with biotechnology sectors performing exceptionally well, including innovative drugs and biotechnology rising by 5.65% and 4.75%, respectively. The AI and integrated circuit sectors faced declines of -1.68% and -1.62% [2][50] - Valuations in emerging industries showed asymmetric changes, with moderate contractions and significant expansions. Notably, the PE ratios for naval equipment, new energy, biotechnology, fund testing, and innovative drugs all expanded by over 1x [2][50]