Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 154 HKD, indicating an upside potential of over 80% from the current price of 85.8 HKD [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights a new cycle logic in the pig farming industry, driven by supply-demand dynamics and policy interventions, which may lead to a phase of capacity reduction and recovery challenges [6][45]. - The company is positioned as a leading integrated livestock farming enterprise in China, focusing on pig and poultry farming, with a strong emphasis on cost management and innovative farming models [17][30]. Industry Overview - The pig farming sector is experiencing a supply surplus and weak demand, leading to a potential decline in pig prices and reduced profitability for farmers [1][44]. - The chicken market is expected to see a marginal recovery in prices in the second half of the year, driven by improving consumer demand and seasonal consumption patterns [2][56]. Company Overview - The company has developed a unique farming model that integrates traditional farming with innovative practices, allowing for rapid expansion and improved farmer collaboration [3][57]. - The pig farming segment has shown significant growth, with a projected output of 11 million pigs by 2025, contributing to an estimated market value of 33 billion CNY [6][30]. - The poultry segment has also seen a doubling of market share from 1.3% in 2018 to 2.6% in 2024, driven by a diversified product matrix and improved breeding techniques [4][30]. Business Segments - The pig farming business leverages a dual farming model, enhancing resource sharing and operational efficiency, which has resulted in a competitive cost structure [3][57]. - The chicken business focuses on breeding and product diversification, responding to market trends and consumer preferences, which is expected to support future price elasticity [4][56]. - The company's slaughtering operations are expanding, aligning with industry trends towards vertical integration and enhanced food processing capabilities [5][30].
德康农牧（02419）：三重α共振：轻资产、低成本、高弹性铸就德康农牧周期突围利刃