国泰君安期货黑色与建材原木周度报告-20250706

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of mainstream delivery product 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine remained flat in Shandong and Jiangsu markets compared to last week, while the price of 3.9 - meter 40+ radiata pine in Shandong increased by 40 yuan/cubic meter. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market were still in short supply [4]. - As of June 29, 38 ships departed from New Zealand in June, with 30 bound for the Chinese mainland and 8 for Taiwan, China and South Korea. It is estimated that 10 ships will arrive in June and 28 in July, with an expected arrival volume of 1.51 million cubic meters in June [5][8]. - As of the week of June 27, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 2.41 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.29 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 1.18 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.17 million cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.2683 million cubic meters, with an increase of 0.0366 million cubic meters compared to the previous week [6][12]. - As of July 4, the closing price of the main contract LG2509 was 795 yuan/cubic meter, a 0.5% increase from last week. The market showed a strong and volatile trend this week, while the fundamental supply - demand situation remained weak. The monthly spreads tended to widen [15]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries Overview - The spot price of 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained unchanged, while the price of 3.9 - meter 40+ radiata pine in Shandong increased by 40 yuan/cubic meter. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market were in short supply [4]. Supply - As of June 29, 38 ships departed from New Zealand in June, with 30 going to the Chinese mainland and 8 to Taiwan, China and South Korea. It is estimated that 10 ships will arrive in June and 28 in July, with an expected arrival volume of 1.51 million cubic meters in June. Detailed ship information including departure time, load, current port, next port, and estimated arrival time is provided [5][8]. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of June 27, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 2.41 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.29 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 1.18 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.17 million cubic meters). - In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.1438 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.009 million cubic meters), Taicang Port about 0.4969 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.0224 million cubic meters), Xinminzhou about 0.4468 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.0267 million cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port about 0.1808 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 0.0215 million cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.2683 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.0366 million cubic meters compared to the previous week [6][12]. Market Trends - As of July 4, the closing price of the main contract LG2509 was 795 yuan/cubic meter, a 0.5% increase from last week. The market showed a strong and volatile trend this week, while the fundamental supply - demand situation remained weak. The 07 - 09 monthly spread was 36 yuan/cubic meter, the 07 - 11 monthly spread was 43 yuan/cubic meter, and the 09 - 11 monthly spread was 7 yuan/cubic meter [15]. Price and Spread - Spot Price: The report provides detailed spot price data of various tree species and specifications in Shandong and Jiangsu markets, including radiata pine and spruce, and analyzes their price changes compared to last week and four weeks ago [19][21]. - Regional Spread: Charts show the price spreads of mainstream timber species between Shandong and Jiangsu, such as 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine, 3.9 - meter 40+ radiata pine, etc. [22][23]. - Species and Specification Spread: Charts present the price spreads between different species and specifications, like the spread between 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine and 40+ radiata pine, and between 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine and 5.9 - meter 40+ radiata pine [37][39]. Other - As of the week of July 4, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1436 points, a decrease of 85 points (-5.6%) from the previous week. The Handysize Bulk Carrier Index (BHSI) was 633 points, a 0.5% decrease from last week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1763 points, a 5.3% decrease from last week. - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index was under continuous pressure. The US dollar - Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.165, a 0.1% week - on - week decrease, and the US dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rate slightly decreased by 0.1% to 1.65 [51][52].