铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告-20250706

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum: Pay attention to the callback pressure as the downstream demand is triggering a negative feedback, and the inventory accumulation inflection point has been confirmed [3][4]. - Alumina: The valuation should not be set high as the "anti - involution" lacks industry details, and the market is in a new inventory accumulation cycle [5]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction End: Spreads, Volume, and Open Interest 3.1.1 Term Spreads - The term structure of Shanghai aluminum has changed to a C - structure, and the average SMM A00 aluminum premium has decreased from 100 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton. The term B - structure of alumina has narrowed [10]. 3.1.2 Monthly Spreads - The monthly spreads of Shanghai aluminum near - term contracts have narrowed [11]. 3.1.3 Open Interest and Volume - The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract remained stable, while the trading volume decreased slightly. The open interest of the alumina main contract decreased slightly but remained at a high level, and the trading volume rebounded during the week [18]. 3.1.4 Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio - The open interest - to - inventory ratio of the Shanghai aluminum main contract has declined, and that of alumina has continued to fall and is at a historically low level [19]. 3.2 Inventory: Bauxite, Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials 3.2.1 Bauxite - Port inventory and inventory days decreased. As of July 4, the port inventory of imported bauxite decreased by 650,000 tons week - on - week. In May, the port inventory and inventory days showed a continuous accumulation trend [24]. - In May, the bauxite inventory of alumina enterprises rebounded, with an increase of 4.487 million tons month - on - month [29]. - Port shipments and sea - floating inventory rebounded. As of July 4, the port shipments from Guinea and Australia increased by 62,900 tons and 150,300 tons respectively week - on - week. The sea - floating inventory from Guinea and Australia increased by 9.04 million tons and 4.678 million tons respectively week - on - week [30]. - Out - port volume decreased, and in - port volume increased slightly. As of June 27, the out - port volume from Australia and Guinea decreased, while the SMM - caliber bauxite in - port volume increased by 698,300 tons week - on - week [34]. 3.2.2 Alumina - The national total inventory continued to accumulate, with an increase of 23,000 tons week - on - week. The plant - level inventory remained stable, the electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory increased slightly, the port inventory accumulated, and the platform/in - transit inventory decreased [43]. - The Aladdin full - caliber inventory continued to accumulate. As of July 3, the national alumina inventory was 3.162 million tons, an increase of 25,000 tons week - on - week [48]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - The inventory accumulation inflection point has been confirmed, but the amplitude is not large. As of July 3, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 6,000 tons to 466,000 tons [49]. 3.2.4 Aluminum Rod - Spot inventory and plant - level inventory accumulated, and the out - port volume decreased [55]. 3.2.5 Aluminum Profiles and Plate - Foil - The raw material and finished product inventory ratios showed differentiation. In May, the SMM - caliber finished product inventory ratio of aluminum profiles decreased slightly, while that of plate - foil increased slightly [57]. 3.3 Production: Output, Capacity, and Operating Rate 3.3.1 Bauxite - In May, the domestic bauxite supply showed differentiation. The overall domestic bauxite supply contracted, and the imported bauxite supply was an important increment. The production in Shanxi, Henan, and Guangxi decreased significantly [63][64]. 3.3.2 Alumina - The capacity utilization rate remained stable, but the fundamental supply - loose pattern remained unchanged. As of July 4, the national operating total capacity was 90.8 million tons, an increase of 800,000 tons week - on - week. The domestic metallurgical - grade alumina output was 1.748 million tons, an increase of 19,000 tons week - on - week [69]. 3.3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - The operating capacity remained at a high level, and the aluminum - water ratio increased seasonally. As of May, the operating capacity continued to be high, and the capacity utilization rate increased significantly. As of July 3, the weekly output was 844,200 tons, a decrease of 70 tons week - on - week [74]. 3.3.4 Downstream Processing - The output of recycled aluminum rods, aluminum rods, and plate - foil decreased slightly. The output of recycled aluminum rods decreased by 730 tons week - on - week, the output of aluminum rods decreased by 7,900 tons week - on - week, and the output of plate - foil decreased by 800 tons week - on - week [77]. - The operating rate of leading downstream aluminum enterprises continued to decline, with a 0.1% decrease to 58.7% week - on - week. The operating rates of various sectors were generally under pressure [78]. 3.4 Profit: Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials 3.4.1 Alumina - The profit decreased slightly. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina was 300.3 yuan/ton. The profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan decreased, while that in Guangxi was better [84]. 3.4.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - The profit remained at a high level, but uncertain factors interfered with market expectations due to the complex global macro - economic situation and geopolitical conflicts [94]. 3.4.3 Downstream Processing - The processing fee of aluminum rods increased slightly, but the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [95]. 3.5 Consumption: Import and Export Profits and Losses, and Apparent Demand 3.5.1 Import Profits and Losses - The import profits and losses of alumina and Shanghai aluminum were basically stable [103]. 3.5.2 Export - From January to May, the cumulative year - on - year export of processed materials decreased. In May, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products continued to increase, with a month - on - month increase of 29,000 tons [105]. - The export profits and losses of aluminum processed materials showed differentiation, and the export demand was hindered by trade policy adjustments [108]. 3.5.3 Consumption Absolute Quantity - The transaction area of commercial housing decreased, while the automobile production increased month - on - month [114].