Guotai Haitong Securities(SH:601211) Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-06 10:47Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - The simultaneous increase in short - term spot and futures prices is due to the fermentation of the "supply gap" sentiment. Although downstream has some restocking demand for high - quality scarce resources and the transaction of some coal types has improved, the market's expectation of long - term production capacity remains unchanged. Once prices rise, the impact of resumption of production will become the main contradiction. With the expected reduction of the third - quarter long - term contract price of Mongolian coal, the shortage of domestic coal will be alleviated. Before seeing the stable recovery of production data, it is necessary to be vigilant about the impact of sentiment. Maintain the idea of lightly shorting on rebounds [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Coal and Coke Fundamentals - Supply - Domestic coal: In the current week, coal mines in Changzhi that were shut down due to safety reasons resumed production, while some mines in Lvliang had a decline in output. The total output of sample coal mines increased by 149,000 tons week - on - week to 12.2691 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate rose by 1.04% to 85.36%. FW raw coal was 8.6527 million tons (+123,800 tons), and FW clean coal was 4.4228 million tons (+73,600 tons) [3][9]. - Overseas coal: The customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port remained low. With the sharp rise of the futures market, the trading atmosphere at the port was good, and the mainstream transaction price continued to rise slightly. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 740 - 750 yuan/ton. The independent coking plant's daily average output was 644,000 tons (-1,000 tons), and the steel mill and coking enterprise's daily average output was 474,000 tons (+0 tons) [3][9]. - Demand - Steel prices fluctuated, and steel mills and traders increased their purchases of coke. The iron - making water output was 2.4085 million tons (-14,400 tons). The inventory of sample coking enterprises decreased by 404,500 tons to 1.2811 million tons compared with the previous week [4][9]. - Inventory - Coking coal: The MS total inventory increased by 600,000 tons. Mine inventory decreased by 644,000 tons, independent coking plant inventory increased by 392,000 tons, steel mill coking plant inventory increased by 84,000 tons, port inventory increased by 259,000 tons, and port - side inventory decreased by 167,000 tons [9]. - Coke: The MS total inventory decreased by 1.11 million tons. Independent coking plant inventory decreased by 109,000 tons, steel mill inventory increased by 97,000 tons, and port inventory decreased by 99,000 tons [9]. - Profit - The profit of commercial coal was 292 yuan/ton (+3 yuan/ton), and the average profit of coking enterprises was - 4 yuan/ton (-13 yuan/ton) [9]. - Warehouse Receipt - For coking coal, the warehouse receipt price of Xiangning low - sulfur coal was 800 yuan/ton, Lvliang Shenjiamao was 894 yuan/ton, and Mongolian No. 5 coal in Tangshan was 793 yuan/ton. For coke, the warehouse receipt price of Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke was 1286 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Coking Coal Fundamentals - Supply - Domestic coal production: The output of raw coking coal and clean coking coal showed an upward trend. The output of sample coal mines' raw coal and clean coal increased week - on - week [3][11]. - Mongolian coal customs clearance: The customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu, Mandula, and Ceke ports showed different trends, with the total customs clearance volume of the three ports fluctuating [15][17][18]. - Inventory - Mine inventory: The raw coal inventory of sample coal mines decreased by 463,300 tons to 3.4992 million tons week - on - week, and the clean coal inventory decreased by 586,200 tons to 3.0838 million tons [23]. - Port inventory: The coking coal port inventory was 3.0427 million tons, an increase of 186,800 tons week - on - week [27]. - Coking plant inventory: The inventory and available days of coking plants in different regions and capacities showed different trends [30][32][34]. - Steel mill inventory: The coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises and the available days of inventory also showed certain changes [35]. 3.3 Coke Fundamentals - Supply - Coking plant production: The capacity utilization rate and daily output of independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants showed different trends [38][40][42][44]. - Inventory - Coking plant inventory: The inventory of independent coking plants decreased compared with the previous period [46]. - Steel mill inventory: The inventory and available days of steel mill coking plants in different regions showed different trends [47][49][50]. - Total inventory: The total coke inventory showed a certain change trend [52]. - Demand - The iron - making water output of 247 steel enterprises was 2.4085 million tons (-14,400 tons), which had an impact on coke demand [9][54]. - Profit - The average profit of coking enterprises was - 4 yuan/ton (-13 yuan/ton), and the disk profit and spot profit of coke also showed certain changes [9][56]. 3.4 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Market - Coking coal futures: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of coking coal 2509 and 2601 futures contracts changed from July 1 - 4, 2025 [60]. - Coke futures: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of coke 2509 and 2601 futures contracts changed from July 1 - 4, 2025 [63]. - Futures Spread - The spreads between JM2509 - JM2601 and J2509 - J2601 showed certain trends from March 21 - June 21, 2025 [67]. - Spot Market - The spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke in different regions showed different trends [70]. - Basis - On July 4, the basis of Mongolian coking coal was 18 yuan/ton, and the basis of coke was - 147 yuan/ton [74].