策略周报：市场中枢或逐步抬升-20250706

Core Insights - The report indicates that the A-share market is likely to experience a gradual upward shift in its central tendency, supported by a classic structure of "weight on the platform, technology growth in the spotlight" [3][25] - The "anti-involution" trend in various industries is expected to improve nominal economic growth from the supply side, although the sustainability of style switching remains to be observed [12][27] - The IPO market has shown positive changes, with a significant increase in the number of new projects and financing amounts, benefiting the brokerage sector [42][43] Market Overview - The A-share market is currently supported by ample liquidity, and as the third quarter approaches, expectations for domestic demand are likely to recover with the acceleration of policy implementation [13][35] - The report notes that the banking sector's dividend yield has declined significantly, reaching a three-year low, which historically indicates potential volatility or adjustment risks in the banking market [32][35] Industry Analysis - The medical and pharmaceutical sectors have seen substantial inflows, with net capital inflow reaching 147.38 billion [37] - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" strategy has catalyzed a rebound in several sectors, including new energy, steel, and construction materials, although high inventory levels in some industries remain a concern [27][35] - The report emphasizes that the current market structure supports the notion of "weight on the platform, technology growth in the spotlight," which is crucial for the index's upward movement [25][35] IPO Market Dynamics - The IPO market has experienced a surge, with 53 new projects accepted in June alone, surpassing the total from January to May [42][43] - The financing amount for IPOs in June reached 9.153 billion, marking a 164.82% increase month-on-month, indicating a favorable environment for innovative companies [42][43] Sector Performance - The report notes that the electronic sector received a boost following positive news regarding U.S.-Vietnam tariff negotiations [23] - The report also mentions that the healthcare sector has been a top performer, with significant capital inflows, while sectors like computing and non-bank financials faced the largest outflows [37][38]