NANSHAN ALUMINIUM(SH:600219) Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-07-07 09:06Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's July rate cut expectation is almost impossible, and the characteristics of the traditional domestic consumption off - season are becoming more obvious [1]. - For alumina, the national policy guides the clearance of backward production capacity, but the falling price of Guinean bauxite weakens cost support, and the price may be adjusted. For electrolytic aluminum, the macro - bullish drive cools down, social inventory accumulates, and the price may face adjustment. For aluminum alloy, domestic recycled aluminum alloy production is in the red, inventory is increasing, and the price of cast aluminum alloy may be adjusted [2][4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - Supply - side situation: The 500,000 - ton high - sulfur bauxite desulfurization project in Qingzhen started production in June, and domestic and Australian (Guinean) bauxite prices were flat. New and expanded alumina production capacities in China and overseas are expected to increase production in July. The domestic operating capacity decreased, but inventory increased [2]. - Cost situation: The average daily full production cost of Chinese alumina is about 2,850 yuan/ton, with different costs in different regions [25]. - Inventory situation: The total inventory of SHFE alumina warehouses and plants decreased last week, while the inventory at Chinese ports increased [14]. - Investment strategy: Short - term investors are advised to lightly short the main contract on rallies, focusing on the support level around 2,600 - 2,800 and the resistance level around 3,100 - 3,300 [2]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Supply - side situation: Domestic production capacity transfer and new projects are expected to increase production in July, and imports may also increase due to overseas production capacity changes [3][58][61]. - Demand situation: The operating rate of downstream leading processing enterprises decreased or remained flat, and traditional consumption off - season led to weakening demand [3]. - Inventory situation: Domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum inventories increased last week, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China increased [34][42]. - Investment strategy: In the short - term, investors should consider price corrections. For SHFE aluminum contract 2508, focus on the support level around 19,000 - 20,000 and the resistance level around 20,800 - 21,000; for LME aluminum, focus on the support level around 2,450 - 2,500 and the resistance level around 2,600 - 2,650 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - Supply - side situation: The production and import of domestic scrap aluminum may increase in July. The production of primary aluminum alloy may increase, while that of recycled aluminum alloy may decrease [6][81]. - Cost and profit situation: The daily full production cost of primary aluminum alloy is 20,600 yuan/ton, and the daily full production cost of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 is 20,000 yuan/ton with negative profit [6]. - Inventory situation: The inventory of domestic aluminum alloy and recycled aluminum alloy is increasing, and the import and export of non - wrought aluminum alloy may decrease [6]. - Investment strategy: Short - term investors are advised to lightly short the main contract on rallies, focusing on the support level around 19,500 - 19,700 and the resistance level around 19,900 - 20,000 [6].