Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-07 12:18Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Industrial Silicon: In the second half of the year, the industrial silicon industry is in a cycle of accelerating the elimination of backward production capacity, with continuous supply - surplus pressure. Supply will increase due to lower electricity costs during the wet season, while downstream demand is weak. Although there are some short - term positive factors, the industry still faces significant adjustment pressure [4]. - Polysilicon: The polysilicon market in the second half of the year is in a stage where fundamental and "anti - involution" logics alternate. Fundamentally, supply may increase due to lower costs, while demand is limited, and high inventory persists. The "anti - involution" logic offers potential for improvement if effective industry integration occurs [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon - Futures Data - Price and Volatility: The strong pressure level of the industrial silicon main contract is 7600 yuan/ton, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.6%, a daily decline of 0.99%, and a 3 - year historical volatility percentile of 94.8%. The main contract's closing price is 8045 yuan/ton, up 0.81% from the previous period, with a decrease in trading volume and open interest [2][9]. - Spread: The SI09 - 11 spread is 70 yuan/ton, up 7.69% from the previous period, and the SI11 - 12 spread is - 325 yuan/ton, up 2.99% [11]. - Spot Data - Prices: The prices of 553 and 421 industrial silicon in different regions show little change, except for a 1.05% decline in Sichuan's 421 silicon. The spread between 421 and 553 in East China is 300 yuan/ton, unchanged [13]. - Downstream Prices: The prices of downstream products such as N - type polysilicon, granular silicon, DMC, and SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 are presented in the report [15]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts - Basis: The basis of East China's 421 and 553 industrial silicon main contracts has decreased. The 421 basis is 1005 yuan/ton, down 6.07%, and the 553 basis is 705 yuan/ton, down 8.44% [13]. - Warehouse Receipts: The total warehouse receipts are 51349 lots, a decrease of 352 lots. The inventory in different delivery warehouses shows various changes [20]. Polysilicon - Futures Data - Price and Volatility: The strong pressure level of the polysilicon main contract is 33000 yuan/ton, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.90%, a daily increase of 0.57%, and a 3 - year historical volatility percentile of 84.12%. The main contract's closing price is 36515 yuan/ton, up 2.83% from the previous period, with changes in trading volume and open interest [2][23]. - Spread: The PS08 - 09 spread is 150 yuan/ton, down 71.43% from the previous period; the PS08 - 11 spread is 305 yuan/ton, down 63.25%; and the PS09 - 11 spread is 155 yuan/ton, down 49.18% [25]. - Spot Data - Prices: The prices of different types of polysilicon, such as N - type, cauliflower, and dense materials, show no daily change. The prices of silicon wafers and battery chips also remain stable [30][32]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts - Basis: The basis of the polysilicon main contract and other contracts has decreased significantly. The main contract's basis is - 915 yuan/ton, down 1116.67% [38]. - Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipts in different regions remain unchanged [40]. 4. Risk Management Strategies - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high product inventory and risk of inventory impairment, it is recommended to short futures (30% hedging ratio) and sell call options (70% hedging ratio) using SI2509/PS2509 and over - the - counter/on - exchange options. Buying out - of - the - money put options is also suggested [2]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with future production plans and the risk of rising raw material prices, it is recommended to buy long - term futures contracts according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options using over - the - counter/on - exchange options [2].