Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for Circle Internet [4][6]. Core Views - Circle has established itself as a leader in compliant stablecoins, with significant growth potential in the stablecoin market. The company launched USDC in 2018, which has become the largest regulated stablecoin globally, and introduced EURC in 2022. Circle's services support over 185 countries and have partnered with more than 1,000 global partners [1][8]. - The stablecoin market is rapidly expanding, with projections indicating a total market value exceeding $250 billion by 2025. USDT and USDC maintain a dominant position, making it difficult for smaller stablecoins to compete [2][11]. - Circle's compliance and early market entry have led to a continuous increase in USDC's market share, which reached 29% in Q1 2025. The company’s revenue is primarily derived from reserve income, which has remained between 95-99% over the past three years [3][25]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Circle was founded in 2013 and aims to enhance global economic prosperity through seamless value exchange. The company initially focused on Bitcoin transfers and payment services, later transitioning to stablecoin issuance with USDC and EURC [8][20]. Market Analysis - The stablecoin market has seen significant growth, driven by the need for stable digital assets amid cryptocurrency volatility. The US Senate has passed the "Genius Act," which aims to regulate stablecoins and is expected to further boost market growth [2][17]. Financial Projections - Circle's projected revenues for 2025-2027 are $2.315 billion, $3.085 billion, and $4.058 billion, respectively, with corresponding price-to-sales (PS) ratios of 18, 13, and 10 [4][40]. The company anticipates a steady increase in net profit, reaching $702 million by 2027 [5][38]. Business Model - Circle's business model is centered around the issuance of stablecoins, with 99% of its revenue coming from reserve income. The company maintains a conservative investment strategy, primarily holding cash and short-term U.S. Treasury securities [19][20]. Competitive Landscape - USDT and USDC are the leading stablecoins, with USDT holding a market share of 69.73% and USDC at 27.50%. Other stablecoins struggle to gain significant market share [15][19]. Investment Valuation - The report estimates Circle's fair market value between $48.6 billion and $53.2 billion, with a target stock price range of $220 to $241 based on a PS valuation of 21-23 times [4][40].
Circle Internet Group Inc-A（CRCL）：财报点评：合规及先发优势明显，稳定币发展空间广阔