Lier Chemical (SZ:002258) Guoxin Securities·2025-07-07 14:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][16] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant year-on-year profit growth of 185.24% to 196.00% for the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit of 265 million to 275 million yuan [1][9] - The price of glyphosate is anticipated to rebound after a prolonged decline, with the current market conditions indicating a potential bottoming out [3][15] - The company has deepened cooperation with major clients, resulting in stable sales despite a significant drop in product prices [2][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company expects a net profit of 2.65 billion to 2.75 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 185.24% to 196.00% [1][9] - The second quarter is projected to yield a net profit of 1.12 billion to 1.22 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 148.89% to 171.11% compared to the previous year [1][9] Product Pricing and Sales - The prices of chlorinated pyridine herbicides have increased, and sales volumes have improved, particularly for products like toxic herbicides [2][10] - The company has registered its glyphosate formulations in eight countries, indicating a low penetration rate in overseas markets and significant growth potential [2][10] Market Conditions - Glyphosate prices have been in decline since 2022, with a current average price of 43,700 yuan per ton, down 88.19% from the end of 2021 [3][11] - The industry is experiencing a seasonal peak in demand for glyphosate exports to South America, with production reaching historical highs [12][11] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with projected net profits of 4.02 billion, 5.19 billion, and 6.43 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][16] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.50, 0.65, and 0.80 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 23.4, 18.1, and 14.6 [4][16]