Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-08 03:41Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 8, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Copper Price and Volatility - Latest copper price: 79,270 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 9.97%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 13.6% [2] Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline: With a long spot exposure, it is recommended to sell 75% of Shanghai Copper main futures contracts at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of call options (CU2509C82000) when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw material inventory and fear of price increase: With a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy 75% of Shanghai Copper main futures contracts at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] News and Factors - Fundamental situation: Stable [3] - Bullish factors: Sino - US tariff policy relaxation and a decrease in LME inventory levels [4] - Bearish factors: Tariff policy fluctuations, a decrease in global demand due to tariff policies, the Fed maintaining high interest rates, the US dollar index hovering at a low level [5][6][8] Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data - Shanghai Copper main contract: 79,270 yuan/ton, with no daily change (0%) - Shanghai Copper continuous - one contract: 79,270 yuan/ton, down 460 yuan (- 0.58%) - Shanghai Copper continuous - three contract: 78,870 yuan/ton, with no daily change (0%) - LME Copper 3M: 9,852 US dollars/ton, down 99.5 US dollars (- 1%) - Shanghai - London ratio: 8.08, up 0.04 (0.5%) [7] Spot Data - Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper: 79,885 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan (- 0.81%) - Shanghai Wumaotrade: 79,850 yuan/ton, down 575 yuan (- 0.71%) - Guangdong Nanchu: 79,790 yuan/ton, down 620 yuan (- 0.77%) - Yangtze Non - ferrous: 79,980 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan (- 0.74%) [9] Premium and Discount Data - Shanghai Non - ferrous copper spot premium: 95 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 17.39%) - Shanghai Wumaotrade copper spot premium: 10 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan (- 71.43%) - Guangdong Nanchu copper spot premium: 50 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan (- 33.33%) - Yangtze Non - ferrous copper spot premium: 75 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 21.05%) [9] Scrap - to - Refined Copper Price Difference Tax - included - Current scrap - to - refined copper price difference: 1,507.13 yuan/ton, down 198.08 yuan (- 11.62%) - Reasonable scrap - to - refined copper price difference: 1,498.05 yuan/ton, down 7.3 yuan (- 0.48%) - Price advantage: 9.08 yuan/ton, down 190.78 yuan (- 95.46%) [10] Tax - excluded - Current scrap - to - refined copper price difference: 6,205 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan (- 3.57%) - Reasonable scrap - to - refined copper price difference: 6,238.47 yuan/ton, down 50.66 yuan (- 0.81%) - Price advantage: - 33.47 yuan/ton, down 179.34 yuan (- 122.95%) [11] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventories Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) - Total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts: 21,682 tons, down 625 tons (- 2.8%) - Total International Copper warehouse receipts: 3,404 tons, with no change (0%) - Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts in Shanghai: 11,616 tons, down 500 tons (- 4.13%) - Total bonded Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts: 0 tons, with no change (- 100%) - Total duty - paid Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts: 21,682 tons, down 625 tons (- 2.8%) [14] LME - Total LME copper inventory: 97,400 tons, up 2,125 tons (2.23%) - LME copper inventory in Europe: 31,225 tons, down 50 tons (- 0.16%) - LME copper inventory in Asia: 64,050 tons, up 1,000 tons (1.59%) - Total LME copper registered warehouse receipts: 60,525 tons, down 800 tons (- 1.3%) - Total LME copper cancelled warehouse receipts: 36,875 tons, up 2,925 tons (8.62%) [16] COMEX - Total COMEX copper inventory: 220,954 tons, up 13,063 tons (6.28%) - Total COMEX copper registered warehouse receipts: 102,553 tons, down 6,004 tons (- 4.13%) - Total COMEX copper cancelled warehouse receipts: 118,401 tons, up 12,201 tons (11.49%) [18] Copper Import Profit and Processing - Copper import profit: - 1,146.49 yuan/ton, down 186.63 yuan (19.44%) - Copper concentrate TC: - 43.33 US dollars/ton, with no change (0%) [19]