Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-08 07:59Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 8, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Nonferrous Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the tin market remain stable. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the market [3][4]. Key Points by Section 1. Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 263,520 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.01%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 13.9% [2]. - For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509C275000 call options when the volatility is appropriate. - For raw material management, when the raw material inventory is low and there are concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509P245000 put options when the volatility is appropriate [2]. 2. Important News - Positive Factors: Sino - US tariff policy relaxation, the semiconductor sector still being in an expansion cycle, and lower - than - expected resumption of production in Myanmar [3]. - Negative Factors: Tariff policy reversals, resumption of production in Myanmar, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and moving towards a contraction cycle [4][5]. 3. Tin Futures and Spot Data - Futures Data: The latest prices of Shanghai Tin main, Shanghai Tin continuous one, and Shanghai Tin continuous three are all 263,520 yuan/ton, 263,520 yuan/ton, and 263,360 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The price of LME Tin 3M is 33,770 US dollars/ton, down 35 US dollars (-0.1%), and the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.92, down 0.02 (-0.25%) [5]. - Spot Data: The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 266,800 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan (-0.15%). The 1 tin premium is 400 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan (-33.33%). The prices of 40% and 60% tin concentrates are 254,800 yuan/ton and 258,800 yuan/ton respectively, both down 400 yuan (-0.16% and -0.15% respectively). The prices of various types of solder bars and lead - free solder also show declines [8][11]. 4. Tin Import and Processing - The latest tin import loss is 17,666.1 yuan/ton, down 2,311.69 yuan (15.06%). The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin ore remain unchanged at 12,200 yuan/ton and 10,550 yuan/ton respectively [13]. 5. Tin Inventory - The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,868 tons, up 61 tons (0.9%). The warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 4,343 tons, up 105 tons (2.48%), and in Shanghai is 1,600 tons, down 44 tons (-2.68%). The total LME tin inventory is 2,085 tons, down 25 tons (-1.18%) [18].