ZJJH(SH:600160) Guoxin Securities·2025-07-09 02:54Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][3][20] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with estimates ranging from 1.97 billion to 2.13 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 136% to 155% [2][4] - The demand for refrigerants is characterized as essential consumption, with prices steadily increasing due to a global "franchise" production and sales model [2][9] - The company has a strong position in the fluorochemical industry, benefiting from a complete industrial chain layout and significant cost advantages [3][20] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 1.16 billion to 1.32 billion yuan for the second quarter of 2025, driven by rising refrigerant prices and stable growth in production and sales [2][4] - The sales volume of refrigerants reached 154,600 tons in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 4.19% year-on-year, while the average selling price increased by 65% year-on-year in the second quarter [5] Market Dynamics - The refrigerant market is expected to experience a long-term upward price trend, moving away from traditional cyclical pricing due to global supply-side structural reforms and high concentration of quotas in leading companies [9][20] - The non-refrigerant business faces intense competition, but the average price of fluoropolymers has shown signs of recovery [16] Future Outlook - The company is projected to maintain strong profit growth, with net profits expected to reach 4.114 billion, 4.823 billion, and 5.170 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][20] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.52, 1.79, and 1.92 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18.9, 16.1, and 15.0 [3][20]