CATL(SZ:300750) Great Wall Securities·2025-07-09 03:09Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [13] Core Viewpoints - The passage of the "big beautiful" bill in the U.S. is expected to negatively impact the domestic new energy vehicle industry, potentially widening the gap between China and the U.S. in this sector [1] - The cancellation of tax credits for new energy vehicles in the U.S. may reduce consumer enthusiasm for choosing electric vehicles over gasoline vehicles, especially as solid-state batteries remain in the early stages of commercialization and are costly [1] - The U.S. Department of Energy's efforts to reduce reliance on foreign entities, particularly from China, in the battery manufacturing sector may hinder local energy storage projects [2] - Chinese battery manufacturers are gaining global competitiveness, with companies like BYD and CATL showing significant growth in battery installation volumes [3] Summary by Sections Section 1: U.S. Policy Impact - The "big beautiful" bill modifies previous incentives for the new energy industry, likely leading to a decline in the U.S. electric vehicle market [1] - The removal of tax incentives could diminish consumer interest in electric vehicles, impacting sales and market dynamics [1] Section 2: Energy Storage and Supply Chain - The new legislation may exclude Chinese suppliers from U.S. energy storage projects, complicating the supply chain for local integrators [2] - Chinese companies dominate the global energy storage battery market, accounting for over 90% of shipments, which poses challenges for U.S. manufacturers [2] Section 3: Chinese Battery Manufacturers - Chinese battery companies are improving their global market positions, with BYD entering the top five in global battery installations [3] - CATL maintains a leading market share, indicating strong competitive advantages for Chinese firms in the battery sector [3] - Tesla's collaboration with CATL for localized production in the U.S. is expected to benefit from federal and state manufacturing subsidies [3]