LZLJ(SZ:000568) Guoxin Securities·2025-07-09 08:22Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The report highlights that the company is focusing on consumer-centric strategies and digital transformation to enhance its competitive barriers, despite facing short-term growth pressures and valuation discounts [1][3][15] - The company is actively reducing inventory and promoting sales, with a long-term growth potential supported by its proactive management and digital initiatives [3][18] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock price has underperformed the liquor sector by 21% from H2 2023 to H1 2025, with a projected PE decline of 45% due to slowing revenue and performance growth [1][19] - The current PE is close to levels seen in early 2013, indicating potential investment opportunities [1][19] Competitive Barriers - The company is characterized as management-driven, with strong organizational and channel advantages, having successfully navigated previous industry adjustments through deep reforms [1][35] - The product portfolio includes a wide range of price points, with significant growth potential from major products [1][35] Digital Transformation - The company is leveraging technology to enhance supply chain efficiency and consumer engagement, with significant growth in online sales and membership assets projected for 2024 [2][17] - The digital transformation is seen as essential for adapting to changing consumer demands and improving channel management [2][17] Growth Logic - The company is focusing on multiple price points and national expansion, with strong performance expected from its high-end products and low-alcohol offerings [2][17] - Short-term strategies include concentrating on key markets while preparing for broader national growth in the long term [2][17] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 30.59 billion, 30.84 billion, and 33.33 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 13.03 billion, 13.20 billion, and 14.54 billion yuan [3][4] - The report anticipates a dividend yield of 5.4% in 2025, supporting the company's valuation [3][4]