Hisense V.T.(SH:600060) Orient Securities·2025-07-09 09:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the home appliance industry, indicating an expected return that is stronger than the market benchmark by more than 5% [5][20]. Core Insights - The report highlights that TV panel prices have shown signs of weakening, with expectations for continued decline in the second half of the year. Despite potential weakening in domestic demand for color TVs, the trend of price increases is expected to persist due to the rapid adoption of MiniLED technology, which will drive up the average industry price [3][7]. - Leading color TV manufacturers are anticipated to benefit from structural optimization and the price drop in panels, creating a "scissors effect" that will enhance profit margins in the second half of the year. The report specifically recommends focusing on Hisense Visual (600060, Buy) [3][7]. - The report suggests that the cyclical fluctuations in panel prices are likely to weaken, with mid-term prices expected to stabilize. This is attributed to a shift in manufacturing power from overseas to mainland China, where over 70% of panel shipments originate, and a decrease in the willingness of manufacturers to increase supply significantly [7][11]. Summary by Sections Panel Price Trends - TV panel prices have been declining for two consecutive months, with July prices expected to continue this trend. The average price for a 55-inch TV panel is $124 (down $2 from June), and for a 65-inch panel, it is $174 (also down $2). Year-on-year, the price drop for 55-inch panels has expanded to -4% [7][9]. - The report notes that the domestic subsidy policy is entering a new phase, with demand resilience but reduced momentum. Additionally, the end of the tariff buffer period in July-August may suppress overseas procurement demand [7][9]. MiniLED Technology Impact - The report anticipates that the penetration rate of MiniLED TVs will approach 20% in Q3 2024 and exceed 30% in Q4 2024. The online market share of MiniLED products during the 618 shopping festival reached 41%, a significant increase of 22.1 percentage points compared to the previous year [7][11]. - The concentration of MiniLED TV sales is expected to increase, with leading manufacturers projected to capture significant market shares, enhancing their competitive edge [7][11]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the global retail volume of color TVs is stabilizing around 200 million units, with a slight downward trend. The demand for larger screens is expected to maintain low-speed growth, contributing to a more stable supply-demand relationship in the panel market [7][11].