Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-09 12:54Report Overview - The report is the "Silicon Industry Chain Enterprise Risk Management Daily Report" by Nanhua Futures, dated July 9, 2025, focusing on industrial silicon and polysilicon [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Views Industrial Silicon - In the second half of the year, the industrial silicon industry is in a cycle of accelerated elimination of backward production capacity, with persistent supply - surplus pressure. Supply will increase due to lower electricity costs in the wet season, while downstream demand is insufficient. Short - term inventory has decreased, but remains at a historical high. The industry faces significant adjustment pressure. Recommended strategies are SI2509 - SI2512 positive spread arbitrage and long SI2508 - short PS2511 [4] Polysilicon - In the second half of the year, the polysilicon market is influenced by both fundamental and "anti - involution" logics. Fundamentally, lower raw material prices and expected lower electricity costs may boost production capacity, but demand growth is limited after the H1 PV installation rush. High inventory persists. If effective industry integration occurs, it could reverse the current situation. The recommended strategy is PS2508 - PS2511 positive spread arbitrage [10] Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract is 8140 yuan/ton, down 0.91% from the previous period; trading volume is 1153446 lots, down 32.44%; open interest is 399029 lots, up 3.08%. SI09 - 11 spread is 55 yuan/ton, up 22.22%; SI11 - 12 spread is - 310 yuan/ton, up 4.62% [14][16] Spot Data - Spot prices of industrial silicon in various regions remain stable. The basis of East China 553 is 535 yuan/ton, down 24.11%; the basis of East China 421 is 835 yuan/ton, down 16.92%. The price difference between East China 421 and 553 is 300 yuan/ton, unchanged [18] Basis and Warehouse Receipts - Total warehouse receipts are 50792 lots, down 285 lots (1.27%). Warehouse receipts in some regional delivery warehouses have changed slightly [25] Polysilicon Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract is 39270 yuan/ton, up 2.31%; trading volume is 794464 lots, up 25.24%; open interest is 97187 lots, down 12.09%. PS08 - 09 spread is 400 yuan/ton, up 63.27%; PS08 - 11 spread is 810 yuan/ton, up 70.53%; PS09 - 11 spread is 410 yuan/ton, up 78.26%; PS11 - 12 spread is - 2135 yuan/ton, up 15.61% [28][30] Spot Data - Spot prices of some polysilicon products are stable, while N - type polysilicon price index and some other products have increased slightly. For example, the N - type polysilicon price index is 40 yuan/kg, up 3.36% [35] Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is 730 yuan/ton, up 131.75%. Warehouse receipts in various regions remain unchanged [42][44] Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For high - inventory situations, short futures (30% hedging ratio) and sell call options (70% hedging ratio) to lock in profits and prevent inventory impairment. Also, buy out - of - the - money put options [2] Procurement Management - When there is a risk of rising raw material prices, buy long - term futures contracts, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options according to the procurement plan [2]