CIG(SH:603083) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-09 12:51Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand of asphalt remains resilient. This week, production decreased slightly month - on - month, and demand slowed down due to rainfall in the north. Overall inventory depletion is not obvious, with social inventory changing little. The asphalt basis fluctuates, and the crack spread is still in a high range. Looking ahead, supply is seasonally recovering but limited by poor refined oil profits. Demand is expected to enter a peak season in August, and the peak season is still worth looking forward to. Short - term attention should be paid to the significant cost fluctuations of crude oil after OPEC's production increase and the details and authenticity of the fuel oil consumption refund policy in Shandong [3]. 3. Content Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1. Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.83% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 51.99% [2]. 3.2. Risk Management Strategies - Inventory Management: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for long - position spot exposure, it is recommended to short the bu2509 asphalt futures at a 25% hedging ratio in the range of 3650 - 3750 to lock in profits and cover production costs [2]. - Procurement Management: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for short - position spot exposure, it is recommended to buy the bu2509 asphalt futures at a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in procurement costs in advance [2]. 3.3. Core Contradictions - Supply is seasonally recovering but limited by poor refined oil profits. Demand will enter a peak season in August, with improved construction conditions in the north and south, accelerated debt resolution by local governments in 2025, eased funds, and a certain guarantee of project quantity during the "14th Five - Year Plan" closing stage [3]. 3.4. Bullish Factors - Asphalt plants have little inventory pressure, providing a basis for price support; there is a seasonal peak in demand; the operating rate is low, and there is an expectation of catch - up construction in the south [8]. 3.5. Bearish Factors - After the end of maintenance, the output of some refineries has recovered; the short - term plum rain season in the south has dragged down demand; OPEC's continued production increase has dragged down oil prices [5][6]. 3.6. Price and Basis Data - On July 9, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3835 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan day - on - day and 20 yuan week - on - week), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3830 yuan/ton (unchanged day - on - day and up 50 yuan week - on - week), the North China spot price was 3750 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan day - on - day and unchanged week - on - week), and the South China spot price was 3620 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan day - on - day and up 20 yuan week - on - week) [6]. - The Shandong spot 09 basis was 212 yuan/ton (down 24 yuan day - on - day and 32 yuan week - on - week), the Yangtze River Delta spot 09 basis was 207 yuan/ton (down 34 yuan day - on - day and 2 yuan week - on - week), the North China spot 09 basis was 127 yuan/ton (down 44 yuan day - on - day and 52 yuan week - on - week), and the South China spot 09 basis was - 3 yuan/ton (down 44 yuan day - on - day and 32 yuan week - on - week) [6]. - The crack spread of Shandong spot to Brent was 161.7242 yuan/barrel (up 1.7329 yuan day - on - day and down 4.0216 yuan week - on - week) [6].