FCSC(SZ:002797) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-07-09 14:14Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating to the company, with an expected reasonable valuation of 1.81 PB for 2025 [2][8]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated significant valuation outperformance against the industry since 2020, driven by its fixed income characteristics and merger expectations [7][17]. - The company benefits from a strong scale effect in its fixed income and asset management businesses, with potential growth in its investment banking operations due to shareholder resource advantages [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Valuation Performance - Since 2020, the company's PB valuation has outperformed the industry twice, particularly after a 4.2 billion yuan private placement in July 2020 and again in September 2024 due to favorable market conditions [17][19]. - The company's historical PB valuation increased from 2.64 to 3.99 during a market rally, indicating strong relative performance [22]. 2. Shareholder Structure - The company currently has no controlling shareholder, with Beijing Guoguan becoming the largest shareholder in May 2023, holding 11.06% of the shares [44][47]. - The management team has diverse backgrounds and extensive experience, which is beneficial for implementing the company's strategic goals [47][48]. 3. Business Characteristics - The company excels in fixed income trading, which is a core competitive advantage, and has made significant progress in its investment banking business [7][33]. - The asset management business, primarily through Chuangjin Hexin, has a leading mechanism and technological empowerment that enhances its core competitiveness [7][33]. 4. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.2 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 12.8% [6][8]. - The expected revenue for 2025 is 3.68 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 4.17% compared to the previous year [6][8].