通胀仍在探底

Group 1: Inflation Overview - The June CPI year-on-year increased by 0.1%, higher than the expected 0% and the previous month’s -0.1% [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, year-on-year rose by 0.7%, compared to the previous value of 0.6% [1] - The PPI year-on-year decreased by 3.6%, which was worse than the expected -3.3% [1] Group 2: Food Prices - Food prices fell by 0.4% month-on-month, but the decline was smaller than the average drop of 1.2% during the same period from 2021 to 2024 [2] - Fresh vegetable prices increased by 0.7% due to supply shortages caused by high temperatures and excessive rainfall, contrasting with the average decline of 4.1% in previous years [2] - In July, food prices continued to show a slight decline, with average prices of 28 monitored vegetables and 7 fruits dropping by 0.3% and 1.2% respectively [2] Group 3: Energy Prices - Oil prices rebounded, significantly reducing the drag on CPI from energy [2] - The average price of Brent crude oil increased by 9.1% month-on-month, leading to a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in transportation fuel prices after three consecutive months of decline [2][11] Group 4: Other Price Movements - The prices of platinum jewelry, rent, and medical services showed improvement, with platinum prices rising by 12.6%, marking the largest month-on-month increase in nearly a decade [3] - Medical service prices increased by 0.3% for three consecutive months, likely due to the implementation of new pricing guidelines [3] - Tourism services experienced a month-on-month price drop of 0.8% due to seasonal factors following the end of holiday periods [3] Group 5: PPI Analysis - The PPI remained at -0.4% month-on-month for the fourth consecutive month, indicating persistent weakness in industrial prices [4] - Seasonal and structural factors contributed to the decline, with significant price drops in the mining and raw materials sectors [4] - The increase in renewable energy generation has exerted structural pressure on traditional energy prices, contributing to the PPI decline [4] Group 6: Industry Insights - Prices in the photovoltaic and lithium battery sectors fell in June, but a policy shift is expected to curb price wars and lead to a potential rebound [5] - The automotive industry has shown signs of recovery, with prices increasing by 0.2% month-on-month after a period of aggressive price competition [6] - Overall, the CPI showed slight improvement while the PPI remained weak, indicating ongoing price stabilization efforts in various sectors [6]