Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-10 02:40Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: July 10, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Copper Price and Volatility - Latest Price: 78,400 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [2] - Current Volatility: 11.41%, and the current volatility's historical percentile is 21.2% [2] Copper Risk Management Recommendations Inventory Management - Situation: High finished - product inventory, worried about price decline - Strategy: Sell 75% of Shanghai Copper Main Contract futures at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of CU2509C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - Situation: Low raw material inventory, worried about price increase - Strategy: Buy 75% of Shanghai Copper Main Contract futures at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Important News - The copper market fundamentals remain stable [3] Market Factors Bullish Factors - Easing of Sino - US tariff policies [4] - Decrease in LME inventory levels [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy fluctuations [5] - Global demand reduction due to tariff policies [6] - The Fed maintains high interest rates [6] - Low - level hovering of the US dollar index [8] - Increasing expectations of Fed rate cuts [8] Copper Futures Disk Data | Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | yuan/ton | 78,400 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 78,400 | - 1220 | - 1.53% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 78,000 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 9665 | - 119 | - 1.22% | | Shanghai - LME Ratio | Ratio | 8.06 | - 0.03 | - 0.37% | [7] Copper Spot Data | Spot | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | yuan/ton | 79,190 | - 605 | - 0.76% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade | yuan/ton | 79,165 | - 580 | - 0.73% | | Guangdong Nanchu | yuan/ton | 79,160 | - 540 | - 0.68% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 79,360 | - 550 | - 0.69% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium | yuan/ton | 70 | - 15 | - 17.65% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade Premium | yuan/ton | - 15 | - 20 | - 400% | | Guangdong Nanchu Premium | yuan/ton | 50 | 0 | 0% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous Premium | yuan/ton | 55 | 0 | 0% | [9] Copper Scrap Spread Data Tax - included - Current scrap spread: 1031.28 yuan/ton, down 612.23 yuan/ton (- 37.25%) - Reasonable scrap spread: 1490.1 yuan/ton, down 8.25 yuan/ton (- 0.55%) - Price advantage: - 458.82 yuan/ton, down 603.98 yuan/ton (- 416.08%) [10] Tax - excluded - Current scrap spread: 5710 yuan/ton, down 625 yuan/ton (- 9.87%) - Reasonable scrap spread: 6183.29 yuan/ton, down 57.26 yuan/ton (- 0.92%) - Price advantage: - 473.29 yuan/ton, down 567.74 yuan/ton (- 601.1%) [11] Copper Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) | Warehouse Receipt | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 21,336 | 2227 | 11.65% | | Total International Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 4483 | 1304 | 41.02% | | SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts in Shanghai | tons | 8466 | - 174 | - 2.01% | | Total Bonded SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total Tax - paid SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 21,336 | 2227 | 11.65% | [14] LME | LME Copper Inventory | Unit | Latest Price | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total LME Copper Inventory | tons | 107,125 | 4625 | 4.51% | | LME Copper Inventory in Europe | tons | 31,225 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper Inventory in Asia | tons | 71,275 | 5100 | 7.71% | | LME Copper Inventory in North America | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total LME Registered Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 68,875 | 3475 | 5.31% | | Total LME Cancelled Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 38,250 | 1150 | 3.1% | [16] COMEX | COMEX Copper Inventory | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total COMEX Copper Inventory | tons | 221,788 | 10579 | 5.01% | | Total COMEX Registered Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 100,053 | - 9197 | - 0.24% | | Total COMEX Cancelled Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 121,735 | 570 | 0.47% | [18] Copper Import and Processing Data - Copper import profit and loss: - 679.37 yuan/ton, down 465.03 yuan/ton (- 40.64%) - Copper concentrate TC: - 43.33 US dollars/ton, no change [19]