ZJJH(SH:600160) Shanghai Securities·2025-07-10 10:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the refrigerant industry is experiencing a sustained boom, significantly boosting the company's performance. The company is expected to achieve a substantial increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with estimates ranging from 1.97 to 2.13 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 136% to 155% [5][8] - The report anticipates that the company's revenue will continue to grow due to the high demand for high-end fluorinated new materials and the implementation of the third-generation refrigerant quota scheme, which is expected to enhance profitability further [8] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 27.55 yuan, with a 12-month price range of 14.42 to 29.00 yuan. The total share capital is approximately 2,699.75 million shares, and the circulating market value is 74.378 billion yuan [2] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.97 to 2.13 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 136% to 155%. The second quarter is projected to show a net profit of 1.16 to 1.32 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 122% to 152% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 44% to 63% [5][6] - The refrigerant sales volume for the first half of 2025 is expected to be 154,600 tons, with an average price of 39,372.45 yuan per ton, leading to a revenue of 6.087 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.09% [6] Market Trends - The report indicates that the refrigerant market is entering a favorable cycle driven by quota systems and increasing downstream demand. The average prices for various refrigerants have shown significant increases, with R22, R32, R125, and R134a prices rising by -12%, 23%, 14%, and 22% respectively [6] - The non-refrigerant business also shows stable growth, with fluorochemical raw material sales volume increasing by 11.72% year-on-year, contributing to a revenue of 681 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.16% [7] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 26.99 billion yuan, 30.05 billion yuan, and 34.20 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 10.3%, 11.3%, and 13.8% [8][11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 4.407 billion yuan, 5.092 billion yuan, and 5.830 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 124.9%, 15.5%, and 14.5% respectively [8][11]