Wintrue Holding(SZ:002539) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-07-10 10:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is a leading compound fertilizer enterprise that continuously improves its raw material supply chain to enhance market competitiveness. The completion of the Guangxi Guigang project is expected to open up future growth opportunities [4][12] - The company has established a complete industrial chain from upstream salt and phosphate resources to downstream nitrogen fertilizers, excluding urea, with a production capacity of 7.45 million tons of compound fertilizer [12][4] - The company anticipates steady growth in performance due to the stable demand for phosphate compound fertilizers and the upcoming production of synthetic ammonia and phosphate rock [4][12] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is a leader in the compound fertilizer industry, having built a complete industrial chain for nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers. It has a production capacity of 745,000 tons of compound fertilizer and various other products [12][4] - The company is working on a 700,000 tons/year synthetic ammonia project, which is expected to reduce production costs for compound fertilizers and other products [4][13] 2. Performance Outlook - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 217.67 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 6% year-on-year, while 2024 revenue is expected to decline by 6% to 203.81 billion yuan [28][6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 9.65 billion yuan in 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) of 0.80 yuan, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates due to the chemical industry's downturn [39][4] 3. Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 222 billion yuan, 256 billion yuan, and 275 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 9.65 billion yuan, 13.33 billion yuan, and 16.44 billion yuan [37][39] - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025-2027 are 12.57, 9.10, and 7.38, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to industry peers [39][4] 4. Competitive Advantages - The company has a well-established industrial chain and production capacity distribution, which is expected to further enhance its cost advantages with the integration of phosphate rock resources [4][12] - The Guangxi Guigang project will fill the capacity gap in southern China and is expected to significantly lower the cost of compound fertilizers, enhancing the company's market competitiveness [16][4]