Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-10 12:06Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Industrial Silicon: In the second half of the year, the industrial silicon industry is in a cycle of accelerating the clearance of backward production capacity and will enter the de - stocking process. The supply pressure will be released with the implementation of production plans in the southwest during the wet season, while the downstream demand is expected to strengthen. The price will show a wide - range oscillation. Strategies include focusing on SI2509 - SI2511 positive spread opportunities and the chance of going long on near - month industrial silicon and shorting far - month polysilicon [4]. - Polysilicon: In the second half of the year, the polysilicon market is in a stage where fundamental logic and "anti - involution" logic alternate. Fundamentally, lower production costs may lead to increased production capacity, while demand growth is limited, and inventory pressure remains high. If industry integration is effective, it may drive up prices. The recommended strategy is to focus on PS2508 - PS2511 positive spread opportunities [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8470 yuan/ton, up 4.05% from the previous period; the trading volume is 1,468,586 lots, up 27.32%; the open interest is 381,237 lots, down 4.46% [11]. - The SI09 - 11 spread is 70 yuan/ton, up 27.27% from the previous period; the SI11 - 12 spread is - 265 yuan/ton, up 14.52% [15]. - Spot Data - The prices of 553 silicon in different regions range from 8200 - 8750 yuan/ton, with some showing price increases. The price of 421 silicon in different regions ranges from 8950 - 9900 yuan/ton, mostly stable. The spread between 421 and 553 silicon in East China is 300 yuan/ton, unchanged [17]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total warehouse receipts are 50,544 lots, down 248 lots from the previous period. The inventory in different delivery warehouses shows little change, except for Sichuan and Jiangsu which have slight increases [23][24]. Polysilicon - Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 41,345 yuan/ton, up 5.28% from the previous period; the trading volume is 1,014,567 lots, up 27.70%; the open interest is 98,601 lots, up 1.45% [26]. - The PS08 - 09 spread is 300 yuan/ton, down 25.00% from the previous period; the PS08 - 11 spread is 800 yuan/ton, down 1.23%; the PS09 - 11 spread is 500 yuan/ton, up 21.95%; the PS11 - 12 spread is - 2325 yuan/ton, up 8.90% [28]. - Spot Data - The prices of different types of polysilicon show some changes, with N - type polysilicon price index rising 12.00% to 44.8 yuan/kg. The prices of silicon wafers and battery chips also have certain fluctuations [33][35]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is 3455 yuan/ton, up 373.29% from the previous period. The warehouse receipts in different regions remain unchanged [40][42]. 4. Risk Management Strategies - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high product inventory and risk of inventory impairment, strategies include shorting futures on the main contract, selling call options, and buying out - of - the - money put options [2]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with future production plans and the risk of rising raw material prices, strategies include buying long - term futures contracts according to production plans, selling put options, and buying out - of - the - money call options [2].