Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy" for the company [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the rapid expansion of e-commerce in Southeast Asia, with a projected market share increase from 28.6% in 2024 to 30% in 2025 [5][6]. - The Southeast Asian e-commerce retail market is forecasted to grow from $189.8 billion in 2023 to $373.6 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.5% [5]. - The company is projected to achieve substantial profit growth, with net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 revised upward by 5%, 6%, and 3% respectively, reaching $360.6 million, $690.5 million, and $898.7 million [8]. - The report highlights the company's competitive advantages, including cost reductions through scale effects and the ability to integrate logistics across various e-commerce platforms [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: $10,259 million in 2024, $12,484 million in 2025, $14,693 million in 2026, and $16,979 million in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 15.93%, 21.69%, 17.70%, and 15.56% respectively [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from $0.01 in 2024 to $0.10 in 2027 [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 3.61% in 2024 to 20.80% in 2027 [4]. Market Position - The company has established itself as the largest express delivery service provider in Southeast Asia, benefiting from significant market share and cost advantages [5][6]. - The report indicates that the company’s total parcel volume in Southeast Asia increased by 65.9% year-on-year in the second quarter, reaching 1.69 billion parcels [10]. Valuation - The target price for the company's stock has been raised by 44% to HKD 10.80, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19.0x for the years 2025-2027, reflecting the company's higher-than-industry growth prospects [8].
极兔速递-W（01519）：逐鹿海外电商高增，龙头优势尽显