ZJJH(SH:600160) Changjiang Securities·2025-07-11 10:11Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [9] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a significant year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with estimates ranging from 1.97 to 2.13 billion yuan, representing a growth of 136% to 155%. The expected net profit excluding non-recurring items is projected to be between 1.95 to 2.11 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 146% to 166% [2][6] - For the second quarter of 2025, the company anticipates a net profit of 1.16 to 1.32 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 121.6% to 152.1% [2][6] - The growth is primarily driven by the continuous rise in the prices of core products, particularly refrigerants, which have seen a recovery in gross margins due to improved industry dynamics and strong downstream demand [13] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company reported a substantial increase in performance for the first half of 2025, mainly attributed to the rising prices of refrigerants. The external sales volume of refrigerants in Q2 was 85,000 tons, showing a year-on-year decrease of 10.1% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.5%. The average price reached 40,900 yuan per ton, marking a year-on-year increase of 65.3% [13] - The average prices for various refrigerants in the domestic market for Q2 were as follows: R22 at 35,900 yuan, R32 at 49,700 yuan, R134a at 47,600 yuan, and R125 at 45,300 yuan, with quarter-on-quarter increases ranging from 4.1% to 12.8% [13] Future Outlook - The upward trend in both domestic and foreign trade prices for refrigerants is expected to continue. As of July 6, 2025, the domestic prices for R22, R32, R134a, R125, and R143a were 35,000, 53,000, 49,000, 45,500, and 46,000 yuan per ton, respectively. The company anticipates that the price increases will further boost Q3 performance [13] - The company, as a leading player in the refrigerant industry, is expected to benefit significantly from the improving industry conditions, with projected earnings for 2025 to 2027 estimated at 5.23 billion, 6.78 billion, and 8.67 billion yuan, respectively [13]