CYPC(SH:600900) Changjiang Securities·2025-07-11 10:11Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company achieved a total power generation of approximately 1,266.56 billion kWh in the first half of 2025, an increase of 5.01% year-on-year. In the second quarter, the power generation was about 689.77 billion kWh, up 1.63% year-on-year. The performance of the upstream high-price power stations remained strong, while the downstream Three Gorges and Gezhouba stations saw a significant decline. The optimization of power generation structure is expected to support the company's revenue and overall electricity price performance [2][6]. - Despite adjustments in the external electricity price, the company's performance outlook for the second quarter remains stable due to steady growth in power generation and higher growth rates from high-price power stations [11]. - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of 70%, with a projected dividend yield that has reached the 98th percentile since 2023, indicating strong investment value as a dividend stock [11]. - The forecast for earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 1.39, 1.47, and 1.48 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 21.64, 20.40, and 20.21 respectively [11]. Summary by Sections Power Generation Performance - In the second quarter, the company’s power generation was 689.77 billion kWh, a 1.63% increase year-on-year. The total for the first half was 1,266.56 billion kWh, up 5.01% year-on-year. The upstream high-price power stations showed strong performance, while the downstream stations experienced declines [2][6][11]. Market and Pricing Outlook - The pricing mechanism for the company's power stations is influenced by market transactions, and while there may be some adjustments in electricity prices due to fluctuations in coal-fired power prices, the impact on hydropower pricing is expected to be limited. The overall outlook for hydropower pricing remains positive due to the expected recovery in water levels [11]. Dividend and Investment Value - The company has a long-term commitment to a minimum dividend payout of 70%, and the expected dividend yield is significantly high compared to government bond yields, enhancing its attractiveness as a dividend stock [11]. Earnings Forecast - The adjusted EPS forecast for 2025-2027 is 1.39, 1.47, and 1.48 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 21.64, 20.40, and 20.21, indicating a stable growth outlook [11].