Hisense V.T.(SH:600060) GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-07-11 11:08Investment Rating - The report rates the black electrical appliances industry as "Overweight" [1][34]. Core Viewpoints - The black electrical appliances industry is currently in a window of demand recovery and technological upgrade, with global capacity layout, especially in Mexico and Vietnam, being a core strategy to address tariff challenges. Chinese brands have advantages in high-end positioning and cost control, which provide resilience to the industry. The recent tariff adjustments in Vietnam are expected to reduce uncertainties, with tariffs on major production bases for exports to the U.S. projected to be in the range of 10% to 40%, improving from previous pessimistic expectations of over 46% [3][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Logic - The recent tariff agreement with Vietnam, effective July 3, 2025, introduces a 20% export tariff and a 40% transshipment tariff, which, despite increasing costs, have been mitigated by the flexible capacity layout of leading companies. The global expansion of leading black electrical appliance brands continues, with an upward trend in market share for the "dual champions" [8]. 2. Current Global Market Status 2.1. Enhanced Global Competitiveness of the Dual Champions - The global market is dominated by Chinese black electrical appliance leaders, TCL Electronics and Hisense, who leverage technological and capacity advantages. The global TV market is expected to reverse its continuous decline in 2024, with significant growth in shipments of large-sized TVs (80 inches and above). In Q1 2025, shipments of high-end TVs (75 inches and above) surged by 79% year-on-year, with revenue increasing by 59% [9][34]. 2.2. Tariff Conflicts in the North American Market - The North American market accounts for approximately 17% of the global market share. The lack of domestic panel production in the U.S. means that black electrical appliance production relies entirely on imports. Tariff increases could lead to higher retail prices, potentially suppressing end demand, but the impact on leading companies is limited due to similar cost pressures across all brands [20][34]. 3. Resolution of Tariff Negotiations in Vietnam 3.1. Vietnam as a Key Production Base for Exports to the U.S. - The recent tariff negotiations with Vietnam, which began in April 2025 and concluded in July, have resulted in a significant reduction in tariffs, alleviating previous uncertainties. The agreement allows for a 20% export tariff and a 40% transshipment tariff, a notable improvement from earlier expectations of over 46% [30][34]. 3.2. Long-term Advantages of Globally Positioned Leading Brands - While uncertainties from tariffs have decreased, the long-term risk of fluctuating U.S. tariff policies remains. Brands with global production layouts are better positioned to navigate these challenges through flexible supply chain adjustments, enhancing their competitive edge [32][34]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The black electrical appliances industry is positioned for growth due to demand recovery and technological upgrades. The report recommends investing in leading companies with established overseas layouts and ample production capacity, specifically highlighting TCL Electronics (2025 PE: 12.0X) and Hisense (12.1X) as key investment opportunities [34][35].