情绪溢价降低，谨防回调风险

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The emotional premium brought by geopolitical conflicts in the polypropylene market is starting to decrease, and there is a risk of price correction. Production profits are expected to continue to weaken, and one should be cautious of the callback risk. It is recommended to close the long - PP short - MA spread strategy and consider buying put options and selling call options [1][7][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Market Main Contradictions - Production: This week's production was less than expected due to more newly added maintenance devices. In the next two weeks, device maintenance will decrease, and production may increase slightly. The maintenance loss this week was 16.77 million tons, up 0.98 million tons from last week, and is expected to be zero in the next two weeks. - Supply and demand: The import and export volumes were in line with expectations. The apparent demand decreased by 1.71 million tons this week, and it is expected to be around 81 million tons next week according to seasonality. The inventory increased slightly this week and is expected to continue to increase slightly next week, mainly due to relatively weak apparent demand [6]. 3.2 Polypropylene Supply - Production: This week's national production was 77.01 million tons, 0.36 million tons less than last week. In the next two weeks, it is expected to reach 78.41 million tons and 78.50 million tons respectively. - Maintenance: There are many newly added maintenance devices this week, resulting in less production than expected. In the next two weeks, device maintenance will decrease, and production may increase slightly [6]. 3.3 Polypropylene Supply and Demand Situation - Supply: The national production this week was 77.01 million tons, with an import volume of 7.5 million tons and an export volume of 3.75 million tons. - Demand: The apparent demand this week was 79.48 million tons, 1.71 million tons less than last week. - Inventory: The total inventory increased by 1.28 million tons this week, and is expected to reach 80.53 million tons and 81.36 million tons in the next two weeks respectively. The upstream inventory increased, mainly due to relatively weak apparent demand [6]. 3.4 Polypropylene Upstream Raw Material Situation - Raw materials: The prices of crude oil, coal, and propane fluctuated this week. The cost of oil - based PP increased by 22.38 yuan/ton, the cost of coal - based PP remained unchanged, and the cost of propane - dehydrogenated PP increased by 88.41 yuan/ton. - Cost: The cost side fluctuated strongly this week, and the emotional premium brought by geopolitical conflicts began to decrease. It is expected to fluctuate next week [7]. 3.5 Polypropylene Cost and Profit - Cost: The cost of oil - based PP, coal - based PP, propane - dehydrogenated PP, and externally purchased methanol - based PP all changed to varying degrees this week. - Profit: The comprehensive profit of the oil - chemical end decreased by 110 yuan/ton, and the production profit is expected to continue to weaken. The import profit is still inverted [7]. 3.6 Polypropylene Price and Spread - Basis: The basis showed an overall weakening trend this week, with limited basis trading opportunities. - Inter - month spread: The inter - month spread fluctuated weakly this week. - Variety spread: The spread between pellets and powders was too narrow, which had a certain supporting effect on the pellet price. The long - PP short - MA spread strategy has been recommended to close the position [9]. 3.7 Polypropylene Upstream, Mid - stream, and Downstream Views and Strategies - Upstream: Although upstream maintenance is gradually entering the peak period, the overall supply is still relatively sufficient, and the main idea is to actively sell goods. - Mid - stream: The mid - stream sales situation has slightly deteriorated, and the demand for speculative inventory in the early stage is still being digested, resulting in a short - term decline in transactions. - Downstream: The downstream replenishment willingness has decreased. After the price correction, the downstream's willingness to purchase goods has decreased significantly. - Strategy: Close the long - PP short - MA spread strategy, be cautious of the callback risk, and consider buying put options and selling call options [11].