TF Securities(SH:601162) Tianfeng Securities·2025-07-13 11:12Market Insights - The market index experienced a breakthrough rise this week, but there was a style switch, with mid-cap indices performing the strongest while the Shanghai 50 lagged behind [1][11] - Leading sectors included real estate, steel, non-bank financials, and construction materials, which are characterized as "cold" industries [1][11] - Historical analysis from 2014H2 and 2006H2 indicates that after the Shanghai index reaches new highs, new account openings tend to rebound, suggesting a potential style switch [1][12][19] Domestic Economic Indicators - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) returned to positive year-on-year growth at 0.1%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a wider decline at -3.6% [3][24] - Manufacturing activity showed signs of recovery with the Manufacturing PMI rising to 49.7, although it remains in the contraction zone [3][34] - The supply side continued to improve, with new orders and production indices both showing marginal increases [3][34] International Economic Indicators - In June, the U.S. non-farm employment exceeded expectations, with an increase of 147,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% [4][50] - The labor market showed strong demand, with job openings rising to 7.77 million, indicating a robust employment landscape [4][52] Industry Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment directions: breakthroughs in AI technology, valuation recovery in consumer stocks, and the rise of undervalued dividends [5] - Emphasis is placed on the importance of monitoring the AI industry trends and their impact on consumer sectors [5]