CSEC,China Shenhua(SH:601088) Changjiang Securities·2025-07-13 12:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [8] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the relative value of coal dividends in the context of the recent highs in the banking sector, suggesting that coal dividends remain attractive due to ongoing inflows from insurance funds into the stock market [2][7] - It emphasizes the potential for significant upside in the dividend yield of China Shenhua, estimating a range of 6% to 46% based on various benchmarks, with an average of around 27% [7] - The report suggests that the coal sector is likely to experience a positive market response due to improving fundamentals and seasonal demand increases, particularly in the context of high temperatures and tight supply conditions [7][20] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) increased by 0.67% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.15 percentage points, ranking 29th out of 32 industries [6][20] - Year-to-date, the coal sector has declined by 8.5%, ranking last among all sectors [7] Price Trends - As of July 11, the market price for Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal was 632 CNY/ton, up 9 CNY/ton week-on-week [20][44] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1350 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 120 CNY/ton [6][20] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes a slow recovery in supply, with downstream purchasing sentiment remaining positive, leading to expectations of continued price increases for coal [6][21] - The report indicates that the daily coal consumption across 25 provinces was 5.699 million tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.6% week-on-week but a year-on-year increase [21][37] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the coal sector's fundamentals and the potential for a market rally driven by both supply constraints and seasonal demand increases [7][20] - It identifies key coal companies with strong dividend yields and stable earnings as attractive investment opportunities [10]