同程旅行(00780):深度报告:造梦大鱼,乘势腾盈

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [5][14]. Core Insights - The travel economy is thriving, with resilient consumer spending on travel, indicating significant growth potential in the tourism sector. The OTA industry is experiencing improved operational ecology and a more favorable competitive landscape. The strategic partnerships with major shareholders Tencent and Ctrip provide low-cost traffic and resource sharing, enhancing stability and growth prospects. The company is expanding its tourism value chain through acquisitions and developing its hotel management business as a second growth curve, benefiting from the recovery of outbound travel. The company's profitability is on an upward trajectory due to optimized user marketing strategies and improved ROI from outbound travel. The report anticipates revenue growth from 197 billion to 260 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with adjusted net profits increasing from 33 billion to 46 billion CNY during the same period [5][10][12]. Company Overview - The company, formed from the merger of two leading online travel platforms, has established itself as a dominant player in the OTA sector, particularly in lower-tier markets. The merger has allowed for a deep integration of user resources and supply chains, enhancing its competitive position against major rivals [9][22][25]. OTA Industry Analysis - The current tourism environment is robust, with domestic travel showing steady growth. The OTA sector is well-positioned to benefit from the high resilience of travel demand, the establishment of online booking habits, and the increasing preference for personalized travel experiences among younger consumers. The competitive landscape is stabilizing, with major players focusing on differentiated strategies to capture market share [10][35][44]. Competitive Advantages - The company leverages its partnerships with Ctrip for resource sharing and Tencent for low-cost customer acquisition through its ecosystem. It has a strong supply chain, covering over 720 airlines and 390 million hotels, which enhances its service offerings. The focus on lower-tier cities is expected to drive user growth, with a significant portion of new users coming from non-first-tier cities [11][29][36]. Growth Highlights - The company is deepening its supply chain through acquisitions and investments, particularly in hotel management and travel agency businesses. This strategy aims to capture growth opportunities in the recovering outbound travel market. The report highlights the potential for improved profitability as marketing strategies and operational efficiencies are optimized [12][66].