Bailong Chuangyuan(SH:605016) Guoxin Securities·2025-07-13 13:22Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][16] Core Views - The company has shown continuous revenue and profit growth due to product structure adjustments and the ramp-up of new production capacity. The approval of allulose in China is expected to drive market demand [2][4][16] - Allulose has functional advantages such as low calories, antioxidant properties, and neuroprotection, which will effectively fill the gap in China's functional sweetener market [14][16] - The company currently has a production capacity of 15,000 tons of allulose crystals and plans to build nearly 20,000 tons of allulose capacity in Thailand to meet domestic and international demand [3][14][16] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 650 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.29%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 171 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.68% [2][4] - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 337 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.79%, and a net profit of 90 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.36% [2][4] - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 346 million yuan, 431 million yuan, and 503 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 40.8%, 24.7%, and 16.6% respectively [3][16] Market Outlook - The global allulose market has grown from 33 million USD in 2019 to 173 million USD in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 33.26%. It is expected to reach 545 million USD by 2030 [11] - The approval of allulose as a new food ingredient in China is anticipated to significantly boost domestic demand [8][10][16] - Allulose is positioned as a safer and more effective sugar substitute compared to artificial sweeteners, which have been linked to health risks [14][16]