LIUGONG(SZ:000528) Soochow Securities·2025-07-13 14:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has released a performance forecast for the first half of 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders of 20% to 30%, exceeding market expectations [2] - The domestic market is benefiting from ongoing economic stabilization policies, product upgrades, and accelerated progress in new energy, leading to a recovery in the earth-moving machinery sector [2] - The company's international strategy focuses on comprehensive solutions and smart technology, resulting in steady growth in revenue and profit [2] - The forecast for the entire year suggests a revenue of 34.6 billion yuan and an increase of 1 percentage point in net profit margin, indicating strong performance certainty [2] Summary by Sections Performance Forecast - For the first half of 2025, the company expects a net profit of 1.18 to 1.28 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20% to 30% [2] - The second quarter net profit is projected to be between 520 to 620 million yuan, with a median of 570 million yuan, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase [2] Market Analysis - In June 2025, excavator sales reached 18,804 units, a year-on-year increase of 13%, with domestic sales recovering to a 6% growth [3] - The company is expected to benefit from strong demand in overseas markets, particularly in regions like Europe, Africa, and Indonesia, despite some declines in specific markets [3] Corporate Strategy - The completion of the mixed-ownership reform in 2022 has significantly enhanced the company's competitiveness and internal vitality through equity incentives and capacity expansion [4] - The company has repurchased shares and announced plans for further buybacks, reflecting confidence in long-term development [4]