CMSK(SZ:001979) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-07-14 06:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown a significant increase in average sales price while maintaining a high land acquisition intensity, focusing on core cities [6] - Despite a decline in sales, the company remains stable in industry rankings and has a sufficient inventory for sale [6] - The company has successfully issued medium-term notes at low interest rates, indicating strong financing capabilities [9] Sales Performance - In June 2025, the company achieved a contracted sales area of 695,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 31.7%, and a contracted sales amount of 21.75 billion yuan, down 5.9% year-on-year but up 25.6% month-on-month [7] - For the first half of 2025, the total contracted sales area was 3.35 million square meters, down 23.6% year-on-year, with a total sales amount of 88.89 billion yuan, down 11.9% year-on-year [7] - The average contracted sales price was 26,533 yuan per square meter, an increase of 15.3% year-on-year [7] Land Acquisition - In June 2025, the company acquired three land parcels in Shenzhen, Zhengzhou, and Yichang, with a total construction area of 261,000 square meters and a total land price of 2.19 billion yuan [8] - In the first half of 2025, the company acquired 16 land parcels with a total construction area of 1.669 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 108%, and a total land price of 35.29 billion yuan, up 142% year-on-year [8] - The average land acquisition price was 21,144 yuan per square meter, an increase of 16% year-on-year, with a land acquisition intensity of 39.7% [8] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 5.97 billion, 6.47 billion, and 7.01 billion yuan respectively, with EPS of 0.66, 0.71, and 0.77 yuan [6] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 13.9, 12.9, and 11.8 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6] - The company's revenue for 2025 is projected to be 194.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5% [10]