Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-14 13:16Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall commodity market is strong, showing a resonant upward trend. Fundamentally, caustic soda has strengthened in the near - term, and the decline in liquid chlorine has led to cost increases. Shandong's liquid caustic soda inventory is low year - on - year, with little spot pressure, and the market may anticipate the peak season. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm of downstream inventory replenishment. In the medium - to - long - term, as production resumes and new production capacity is gradually put into operation, supply - side pressure may gradually emerge [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2200 - 2600. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.38%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility over 3 years is 6.6% [3]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can sell SH2509 call options at a 50% hedging ratio in the 2600 - 2650 range to collect premiums and short caustic soda futures to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell SH509C2600 call options at a 50% hedging ratio in the 60 - 70 range to lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [3]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low regular inventory and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy SH2509 futures at a 50% hedging ratio in the 2350 - 2400 range to prevent price increases and lock in procurement costs. They can also sell SH509P2400 put options at a 50% hedging ratio in the 40 - 50 range to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [3]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Futures and Spot Price Information - Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads: On July 14, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2564 (up 28 or 1.1% from July 11), the 09 contract was 2496 (down 11 or - 0.44%), and the 01 contract was 2509 (up 33 or 1.33%). The monthly spread (5 - 9) was 40 (up 6), (9 - 1) was 20 (up 5), and (1 - 5) was - 60 (down 11) [5]. - Base Prices: The 05 contract base price (Shandong Jinling) was - 36 (up 5), the 09 contract was 4 (up 11), and the 01 contract was 54 (up 30) [6]. - Factory Prices: The 32% caustic soda factory price in Shandong Jinling on July 14, 2025, was 2563 (up 62.5 or 2.5% from July 11). The 50% caustic soda factory price of Jinling was 2660 (up 80 or 3.1%) [6][7]. - Market Prices: The flake caustic soda market prices in various regions remained unchanged on July 14, 2025, compared with July 11 [7]. 3.4 Caustic Soda Brand/Regional Spreads - On July 14, 2025, the spread between Shandong 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda was 98 (up 17.5), the spread between Jiangsu 49% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda was 13 (up 71), and the spread between Jiangsu - Shandong (32% caustic soda converted to 100%) was 244 (down 31.25) [8]. 3.5 Caustic Soda Futures Monthly Spread Seasonality - Seasonal charts of caustic soda futures monthly spreads (07 - 09), (09 - 11), (11 - 01), and (09 - 1) are provided, sourced from wind and Nanhua Research [10][11].