Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is considered the purest player in the hard discount sector and is the only listed company in the bulk snack market, possessing scale, first-mover, and management advantages. The company has over 15,000 stores, strong bargaining power in the supply chain, and potential for improved net profit margins as subsidy costs decrease. Additionally, the bulk snack stores effectively meet the consumption needs of lower-tier markets, allowing for continuous category expansion and significant growth potential [2][3][4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 540 billion, 643 billion, and 734 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 9.36 billion, 12.92 billion, and 16.02 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 219%, 38%, and 24%. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 33 and 24 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, indicating substantial room for market capitalization growth due to the company's rarity and growth potential [3][4]. Category Expansion - The company is transitioning from a "snack+" model to a "discount supermarket" model, driven by the need to address the challenges of scale inefficiency and low-price competition in the retail sector. The bulk snack channel has become a significant player in the snack category, with expectations of revenue exceeding 500 billion yuan by 2025. The industry is moving towards a dual oligopoly competition structure, where leading companies have a competitive edge due to their scale and first-mover advantages [12][13][14]. Consumer Demand and Market Position - The bulk snack channel meets consumer demands for "more, faster, better, and cheaper," with a typical customer price point of 20-30 yuan. The channel's products are priced at 70-80% of those in other channels, making it an attractive option for consumers. The company aims to leverage its scale and bargaining power to capture market share in lower-tier cities [15][16][20]. Store Experience and Product Offering - The company's stores are designed to enhance consumer experience, featuring clear product area divisions and engaging layouts that encourage deeper exploration of the store. The introduction of diverse product categories, including fresh food, baked goods, and toys, aims to create a one-stop shopping experience that meets various consumer needs [63][68][70].
万辰集团（300972）：从草根观察看量贩零食扩品类之路