Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-14 14:26Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply - demand structure of asphalt shows a weakening trend, with weekly production increasing by 28% year - on - year and demand growing by 10% year - on - year. The inventory structure shows factory inventory accumulation and social inventory depletion, and speculative demand is weakening. The basis in Shandong and East China has weakened due to increased operating rates, while the crack spread remains high. Currently, the supply increase exceeds expectations slightly, and the demand is still in the off - season due to rainfall. The overall fundamentals have weakened month - on - month. In the medium to long term, demand is expected to pick up as construction conditions improve in August, and the peak season is still worth looking forward to. Short - term attention should be paid to the cargo flow situation and the details and authenticity of the fuel oil consumption refund policy in Shandong [2] - There are both positive and negative factors for asphalt. Positive factors include low factory inventory pressure, seasonal peak demand, low operating rates and the expectation of catch - up construction in the South. Negative factors include the resumption of production in some refineries after maintenance, short - term demand drag from the plum rain season in the South, and weakening basis [3][6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Asphalt Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the month is 3400 - 3750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.98% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 40.88% [1] 2. Asphalt Risk Management Strategy - For inventory management, when the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about asphalt price drops, enterprises with long spot positions can short the bu2509 asphalt futures at a hedging ratio of 25% in the price range of 3650 - 3750 to lock in profits and make up for production costs [1] - For procurement management, when the regular procurement inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase according to orders, enterprises with short spot positions can buy the bu2509 asphalt futures at a hedging ratio of 50% in the price range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in procurement costs in advance [1] 3. Asphalt Spot and Futures Prices and Related Indicators - Spot prices: On July 14, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3810 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, - 10 yuan/ton week - on - week), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3780 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, - 50 yuan/ton week - on - week), the North China spot price was 3750 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day and week - on - week), and the South China spot price was 3610 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, - 20 yuan/ton week - on - week) [4] - Spot 09 basis: The Shandong, Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China spot 09 basis all decreased by 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, with weekly decreases of - 90, - 130, - 80, and - 100 yuan/ton respectively [4] - Crack spread: The Shandong spot crack spread against Brent was 153.4511 yuan/barrel, a daily decrease of - 0.2613 yuan/barrel and a weekly decrease of - 9.1929 yuan/barrel. The futures main contract crack spread against Brent was 125.0318 yuan/barrel, a daily increase of 6.6702 yuan/barrel and a weekly increase of 6.4031 yuan/barrel [7]