南华期货硅产业链企业风险管理日报-20250714

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - In the second half of the year, the industrial silicon industry will be in a cycle of accelerating the clearance of backward production capacity and entering the de - stocking process. The supply pressure will be released with the implementation of production plans in Southwest China during the wet season. The downstream demand is expected to strengthen, with the photovoltaic industry potentially boosting demand, while organic silicon and aluminum alloy enterprises maintaining stable demand. The price will show a wide - range fluctuation. Suggestions include looking for opportunities to go long on industrial silicon at low prices, SI2509 - SI2511 positive spread trading, and going long on industrial silicon while shorting polysilicon [4]. - Positive factors are the "anti - involution" policy, limited downward space for costs, and better - than - expected demand. Negative factors are the release of production capacity in Southwest China during the wet season and potential weakening of demand due to industrial integration in the polysilicon industry [5][6]. Polysilicon - In the second half of the year, the polysilicon market is in a stage where fundamental and "anti - involution" logics alternate. Fundamentally, lower electricity prices and higher profits may increase production capacity. However, demand growth is limited, and high inventory persists. If industry integration is effective, it may drive prices up. The suggestion is to focus on PS2508 - PS2511 positive spread trading [8]. - Positive factors are potential industry integration and increased external demand from the US. Negative factors are inventory accumulation if integration fails [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The industrial silicon main contract shows wide - range fluctuations, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 34.7%, a daily increase of 1.09%, and the current volatility at the 96.4% historical percentile in 3 years. The main contract closing price is 8695 yuan/ton, up 3.33% from the previous period; the trading volume is 1473993 lots, up 54.58%; the open interest is 402890 lots, up 9.54%. SI09 - 11 spread is 90 yuan/ton, up 28.57% [2][13][15]. Spot Data - The prices of 553 and 421 industrial silicon in different regions have increased to varying degrees. For example, the price of East China 553 is 8850 yuan/ton, up 1.14%. The East China 553 basis is 435 yuan/ton, up 55.36%, and the East China 421 - 553 spread is 350 yuan/ton, unchanged [17]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total warehouse receipts are 50090 lots, down 139 lots or 3.58% from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventories in different delivery warehouses have different changes [24]. Polysilicon Futures Data - The polysilicon main contract also shows wide - range fluctuations, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 44.99%, a daily increase of 0.01%, and the current volatility at the 84.73% historical percentile in 3 years. The main contract closing price is 41765 yuan/ton, up 1.05%. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts have different changes. PS08 - 09 spread is 320 yuan/ton, down 3.03% [2][27][29]. Spot Data - The prices of different types of polysilicon, such as P - type and N - type, have different daily changes. For example, the N - type polysilicon price index is 43.45 yuan/kg, down 3.01% [34]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The polysilicon main contract basis is 1685 yuan/ton, down 51.44% from the previous period. The warehouse receipts in different regions remain unchanged [41][43]. Risk Management Strategies - For inventory management of industrial silicon and polysilicon, when product inventory is high, strategies include shorting futures, selling call options, and buying out - of - the - money put options. For procurement management, when there is a risk of rising raw material prices, strategies include buying forward futures contracts, selling put options, and buying out - of - the - money call options [2]