房地产行业报告（2025.07.07-2025.07.13）：政策预期刺激板块大涨，重点关注中国金茂

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The current industry fundamentals have not changed significantly, but there is an increasing expectation for policy stimulus. Future policies are expected to focus on existing building renovations, old community upgrades, complete community construction, and smart city development, rather than large-scale demolitions and constructions. China Jinmao is highlighted as a key company to watch due to its strong shareholder background and increased land acquisition intensity this year. As of the first half of 2025, Jinmao reported a cumulative contracted sales amount of 53.347 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.77%, indicating potential for continued improvement in operational performance [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Industry Fundamentals Tracking - New home transaction area in 30 major cities last week was 1.2667 million square meters, with a cumulative area of 49.2489 million square meters for the year, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%. The average transaction area over the past four weeks was 2.1148 million square meters, down 14.7% year-on-year and 5.6% month-on-month. In first-tier cities, the average transaction area was 58080 square meters, down 18.3% year-on-year and 7% month-on-month [5][13]. - The inventory of available residential properties in 14 cities was 79.8571 million square meters, down 9.75% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.64%. The average de-stocking period for these cities is 17.13 months, with first-tier cities at 12.07 months [15][21]. 2. Market Performance Review - Last week, the A-share Shenwan一级房地产行业 index rose by 6.12%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 0.82%, by 5.3 percentage points. In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Property Services and Management Index fell by 1.04%, while the Hang Seng Composite Index decreased by 1.09% [28][29]. 3. Key Company Performance - Key A-share real estate stocks that saw significant gains last week included Greenland Holdings (+26.83%), Quzhou Development (+23.67%), and Fuxing Shares (+13.89%). In the Hong Kong market, leading real estate stocks included Greentown China Holdings (+21.62%), Shenzhen Holdings (+15.73%), and Agile Group (+12.94%) [32].