价大幅攀升，多晶硅偏强运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of industrial silicon showed a strong upward trend this week, with the futures main contract rebounding. The supply of industrial silicon is stable in the north and increasing in the south, with overall output slightly increasing, and the demand for polysilicon has a slight increase. The market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and the actual spot trading situation needs further attention [6]. - The spot price of polysilicon jumped significantly this week, and the futures main contract also rebounded strongly. Although there is no sign of large - scale recovery in terminal demand, downstream sectors have started to raise prices. The polysilicon market is expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Price: As of July 11, 2025, the price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 250 yuan/ton; the futures main contract closed at 8415 yuan/ton [6][10]. - Supply: Xinjiang's large - scale factories' operations are basically stable, with no news of复产 for previously shut - down production capacity and a slight decline in output. Yunnan is releasing output from复产 silicon enterprises during the wet season, and some silicon furnaces still have plans for复产 [6]. - Demand: The operating rate of polysilicon is basically stable, and the output in July is expected to increase slightly. The operating rate of the organic silicon industry has a slight fluctuation, and the weekly output has a small increase. The operating rate of the aluminum alloy industry is expected to be weak, and the export volume in May decreased compared with the previous month and the same period last year [6]. - Cost: This week, the cost of industrial silicon remained stable, with the prices of silicon coal and silicon stone weakly stable [6]. - Inventory: As of July 10, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in the country was 55.1 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week [6]. - Price Difference: The price difference between the benchmark delivery product and the alternative delivery product has slightly shrunk. As of July 11, 2025, the price difference between Yunnan industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 1050 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 250 yuan/ton [12][14]. Polysilicon - Price: As of July 11, 2025, the price of N - type dense material was 46000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 11000 yuan/ton; the futures main contract closed at 41330 yuan/ton [7][19]. - Supply: The market's expectation of supply - side reform and industry restructuring in the polysilicon industry has increased. The output in June was about 10.2 tons, and the output in July is expected to be between 10.3 - 11 tons [7]. - Demand: There is no sign of large - scale recovery in terminal demand, but downstream sectors have started to raise prices. In May, the import volume decreased compared with the previous month, and the export volume increased [7]. - Cost: This week, the cost of polysilicon was supported, with the cost of raw material industrial silicon rebounding [7]. - Inventory: The inventory pressure of polysilicon remains high, with the total market inventory exceeding 3 months [7]. - Price Difference: The price difference between the benchmark delivery product and the alternative delivery product has widened significantly. As of July 11, 2025, the premium of N - type dense material over P - type dense material was 13000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10000 yuan/ton [21][23]. Downstream Products - Silicon Wafer: As of July 11, 2025, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm), and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) were 0.94, 0.94, 1.15, and 1.35 yuan/piece respectively, with week - on - week increases. There is currently no market transaction [40]. - Battery Chip: As of July 11, 2025, M10 single - crystal TOPCon, G10L single - crystal TOPCon, G12R single - crystal TOPCon, and G12 single - crystal TOPCon were quoted at 0.24, 0.24, 0.253, and 0.253 yuan/watt respectively, with week - on - week increases. Many battery chip manufacturers have suspended or delayed shipments [44]. - Component: As of July 11, 2025, 182 single - sided TOPCon, 210 single - sided TOPCon, 182 double - sided TOPCon, and 210 double - sided TOPCon were quoted at 0.665, 0.675, 0.665, and 0.675 yuan/watt respectively, with week - on - week increases. The price adjustment is cautious due to strong terminal customer wait - and - see sentiment [48]. Other Related Industries - Organic Silicon: As of July 11, 2025, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 11000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 500 yuan/ton. The production profit margin has rebounded, and the capacity utilization rate has increased [51][53]. - Aluminum Alloy: As of July 11, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 19700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton. The operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises is weak [55][57]. Cost - related - Silicon Coal and Silicon Stone: As of July 11, 2025, the delivered price of Ningxia silicon coal was 895 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the delivered price of Hubei silicon stone was 325 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton [25][27]. - Petroleum Coke and Electricity Price: As of July 11, 2025, the price of Saudi petroleum coke at Shandong ports was 1125 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from last week. The electricity prices in Sichuan and Yunnan have decreased [31][33]. - Wood Chips, Charcoal, and Graphite Electrodes: As of July 11, 2025, the prices of Yunnan wood chips, Yunnan charcoal, and Jiangsu high - power graphite electrodes remained unchanged from last week [35][37].