中国6月进出口数据超预期，央行开展了2262亿元7天期

1. Report Summary - The report analyzes the financial and commodity markets on July 15, 2025, covering macro - strategies, commodities, and shipping. It provides news, analysis, and investment advice for each sector. 2. Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 3. Core Views - China's economic data shows positive trends, with June exports increasing by 5.8% and imports by 1.1%. The overall economic situation has improved, and comprehensive policies to address "involution" are gradually taking effect [21][20] - Trump's tariff threat against Russia is less effective, and the US dollar index continues to rebound [14][15] - The short - term bond market is weak, but there is long - term optimism, suggesting to buy mid - term long positions on dips [27][28] - The steel price remains volatile, supported by "anti - involution" policies, but caution is needed when chasing long positions [43] - The price of palm oil may correct, suggesting to buy long positions on dips or hedge with short positions on other oils [36] 4. Summary by Category 4.1 Financial News and Reviews - Macro - strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index): Hasset is a leading candidate for the next Fed Chair. Trump is open to EU trade talks and threatens Russia with 100% tariffs. The dollar index is expected to strengthen in the short term [13][14][15] - Macro - strategy (US Stock Index Futures): Trump threatens Russia with high tariffs, and the EU may impose counter - tariffs on $72 billion of US goods. Market volatility may increase, and the index valuation center may move up [16][17][18] - Macro - strategy (Stock Index Futures): Comprehensive policies to address "involution" are gradually taking effect, and China's June exports and imports are showing positive growth, which is expected to boost market sentiment [20][21] - Macro - strategy (Treasury Bond Futures): Social financing data is strong, and the bond market is weak in the short term but optimistic in the long term. It is recommended to buy mid - term long positions on dips [27][28] 4.2 Commodity News and Reviews - Black Metal (Steam Coal): High summer temperatures increase coal consumption, and coal prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [29] - Black Metal (Iron Ore): Iron ore prices are stable, with mild fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [30] - Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal): US soybean growth conditions are better than expected, and domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventory is rising. The market is concerned about US tariff policies and NOPA's monthly report [31][32] - Agricultural Products (Palm Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Kernel Oil): Indian palm oil imports have increased significantly, and domestic palm oil inventory is rising. There is a risk of correction in the short term, and it is recommended to buy long positions on dips [34][35][36] - Agricultural Products (Cotton): India has sold more than half of its MSP - purchased cotton. China's textile exports are mixed, and the downstream industry is in a downturn, which may limit the upward momentum of cotton prices [37][39][40] - Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil): Steel prices are volatile, and "anti - involution" policies support prices in the short term. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing long positions [43] - Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke): Coking coal prices are rising, mainly driven by macro factors. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [45][46] - Agricultural Products (Corn Starch): Corn starch prices are slightly down, and demand is loosening. The uncertainty of CS - C in the future is high [47] - Agricultural Products (Corn): Corn imports are down year - to - date, and spot prices are falling. It is recommended to pay attention to import auctions and inventory [48][49] - Non - ferrous Metals (Copper): Luoyang Molybdenum's profit is expected to increase significantly in the first half of the year. The US tariff policy and inflation data will affect copper prices, which are expected to be volatile in the short term [52][55] - Non - ferrous Metals (Lead): The lead market is in a state of both supply and demand increase, and prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the investigation in Gansu [56][57] - Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate): Yichun's policy has increased supply uncertainty, and lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [59] - Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc): Zinc fundamentals are weakening, but the short - term macro sentiment is strong. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and protect previous short positions [63][64] - Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel): Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate in a low - level range in the short term and decline in the medium - term [66][67] - Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil): Trump pressures Russia to cease fire, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate [68] - Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas): The domestic market is weak, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [70][72] - Energy Chemicals (Asphalt): Asphalt prices are expected to rise slightly [73] - Energy Chemicals (PX): PX prices have rebounded, and the medium - long - term de - stocking pattern continues. It is recommended to pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans [74][75] - Energy Chemicals (PTA): PTA prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [78][79] - Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda): The caustic soda market is rising, but it may be difficult to continue rising [80][81] - Energy Chemicals (Paper Pulp): Pulp prices are driven up by the market, but the upward space is limited [82][83] - Energy Chemicals (PVC): PVC prices are rebounding, but the upward space is limited [84] - Energy Chemicals (Urea): Urea exports are accelerating, and the market is expected to fluctuate [86][87] - Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips): Bottle chip factories are implementing production cuts, and it is recommended to buy on dips to expand processing fees [89] - Energy Chemicals (Styrene): The pure benzene market is expected to improve in July - August, but the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait for a safer valuation [91] - Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate): China's imports and exports are growing, and the SCFIS (European Line) index is rising. The futures valuation center of the European line may move up [93][94]