Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Laopu Gold (6181.HK) with a target price of HK$1,090, based on a 25x target P/E for 2027E [9][27]. Core Insights - Laopu Gold is expected to report significant growth in sales and net profit for 1H25, with forecasts of 268% and 284% year-over-year growth, respectively, reaching RMB12,963 million in sales and RMB2,259 million in net profit [1][17]. - The company is focusing on several key strategies for 2H25, including gross profit margin (GPM) management, store optimization, high ticket size SKU launches, and overseas expansion, particularly in Singapore [2][8]. - The GPM is projected to contract by 2.1 percentage points year-over-year to 39.3% due to raw material cost pressures, despite a price hike of less than 10% implemented earlier [8][24]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Laopu Gold's revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB8,505.6 million in 2024 to RMB27,121.8 million in 2025, with EBITDA expected to increase from RMB2,123.6 million to RMB6,603.5 million over the same period [4][28]. - The adjusted net profit for 1H25 is expected to be RMB2,409 million, reflecting a 294% increase year-over-year when excluding ESOP expenses [1][17]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is experiencing strong sales per store, with an average of RMB300 million, and a same-store sales growth (SSSG) of 150% [8]. - Laopu Gold plans to expand its store network, with new openings in key locations such as Shanghai and Singapore, which are anticipated to support additional SSSG [2][8]. Valuation Metrics - The report outlines various valuation metrics, including a P/E ratio of 14.1 for 2024, increasing to 29.6 for 2025, and a projected dividend yield of 5.2% for 2024 [4][9]. - The company’s financial returns are highlighted by a CROCI of 50.1% for 2024, indicating strong profitability relative to capital employed [4][9]. Growth Projections - The report anticipates continued growth in net income, projecting RMB4,733 million for 2025 and RMB6,623 million for 2026, with year-over-year growth rates of 221% and 40%, respectively [29]. - The expected margins for 1H25 include a gross profit margin of 39.3%, operating profit margin of 23.6%, and net profit margin of 17.4% [17][24].
高盛：老铺黄金_2025 年上半年预览-销售强劲，但受毛利率压力抵消；下半年聚焦单店同店增长韧性、高端产品及海外业务