Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-15 02:47Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but short - term fluctuations will intensify. It is recommended to control positions and maintain the idea of buying on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Monday, the precious metals market fluctuated sharply. Silver rose and then fell, platinum declined significantly, and palladium had a wide trading range. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields rose, the US stock market fluctuated, Bitcoin rose and then fell, crude oil prices dropped, and the South China Non - ferrous Metals Index fluctuated. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3352.1 per ounce, down 0.35%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $38.41 per ounce, down 1.4%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract was 781.4 yuan/gram, up 1.06%; SHFE silver 2510 contract was 9207 yuan/kg, up 2.11% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations have slightly cooled. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 94.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 5.2%. In September, the probability of unchanged rates is 36.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 60%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 3.2%. In October, the probability of unchanged rates is 14.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 46.1%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 37.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 1.9% [3]. - In terms of long - term funds, the daily holdings of SPDR Gold ETF remained at 947.64 tons; the holdings of iShares Silver ETF increased by 207.72 tons to 14966.24 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 79.6 tons to 1224 tons daily; as of the week ending July 4, SGX silver inventory decreased by 3.3 tons to 1319.9 tons weekly [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week, the focus in terms of data is on the US CPI data on Tuesday evening. In terms of events, domestically, at 10:00 on Tuesday, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the economic performance in the first half of 2025. Overseas, at 14:45 on Tuesday, 2025 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins will give a speech; at 21:45, Fed Governor Bowman will give a welcome speech at a Fed - hosted conference. At 00:45 on Wednesday, Fed Governor Barr will speak at a Fed - hosted conference; at 02:45, 2025 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins will give a speech; at 04:00, Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak. At 02:00 on Thursday, the Fed will release the Beige Book of Economic Conditions; at 05:30, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak on the US economy and monetary policy. In addition, US President Trump plans to make a "major statement" on the Russian issue this week [4]. 3.4 Precious Metals Price and Inventory Data - Precious metals futures and spot price table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various precious metals contracts such as SHFE gold, SGX gold TD, CME gold, etc. [6]. - Inventory and position table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories and positions, as well as the holdings of SPDR gold and SLV silver ETFs [15][16]. 3.5 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - The table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread [23].