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太湖雪(838262):丝绸消费需求回升,线上渠道高增长驱动Q1+47%

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [2][3] Core Views - The company has shown a revenue growth of 7% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with a net profit increase of 9.41% [3] - The company is expected to maintain a positive growth trajectory with projected net profits of 0.44 billion, 0.53 billion, and 0.63 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.64, 0.76, and 0.92 [3] - The company benefits from the "old-for-new" national subsidy policy, which has positively impacted sales growth across online and offline channels [4] - The domestic silk consumption demand is on the rise, with a compound annual growth rate of 9% for silk quilts from 2020 to 2024 [5] Financial Summary - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 5.31 billion, which is expected to decline to 5.16 billion in 2024, followed by a recovery to 6.04 billion in 2025 [6] - The net profit for 2023 was 340 million, projected to decrease to 280 million in 2024, and then increase to 440 million in 2025 [6] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 40% from 2025 to 2027 [6][10] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 53.0 in 2023 to 28.8 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [6][9]