PDH(SH:600048) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-07-15 06:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing a decline in profit due to a decrease in project turnover scale and profitability, but it maintains the top sales ranking in the industry. The land reserve structure is continuously optimized, and there is a significant advantage in funding costs. The profit forecast remains unchanged, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 at 5.678 billion, 6.560 billion, and 7.505 billion respectively, and corresponding EPS of 0.47, 0.55, and 0.63. The current stock price corresponds to PE valuations of 17.2, 14.9, and 13.0 times, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance recovery after the completion of low-cost project turnover [5][6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.735 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 63.15%, and a non-recurring net profit of 2.599 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 64.05%. The decline is primarily due to reduced project turnover scale and profitability [6]. - The company achieved a signed area of 7.1354 million square meters in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 25.23%, with a signed amount of 145.171 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.25%. Despite the decline, the company remains the industry leader. The average sales price per square meter increased by 12.01% year-on-year to 20,345 yuan [7][8]. Land Acquisition and Market Position - The company maintained a land acquisition intensity of approximately 33% in the first half of 2025, with 47% of new land acquisitions located in first-tier cities. A total of 26 projects were acquired, with a total land area of 1.0118 million square meters and a total construction area of 2.9409 million square meters, representing a year-on-year increase of 153.8%. The total land acquisition amount reached 48.873 billion, a year-on-year increase of 287.8% [8]. Financial Projections - The financial summary indicates a projected revenue decline from 346.828 billion in 2023 to 269.090 billion in 2025, with a corresponding net profit decrease from 12.067 billion to 5.678 billion. The gross margin is expected to decrease from 16.0% to 13.1%, while the net margin is projected to improve from 1.6% to 2.1% by 2025 [9][11].