Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-15 14:01Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Industrial Silicon: In the second half of the year, the industrial silicon industry is in a cycle of accelerating the elimination of backward production capacity and entering the de - stocking process. The supply pressure will be continuously released with the implementation of production plans in Southwest China during the wet season. The downstream demand support is expected to strengthen, but inventory remains at a historical high. Overall, the price will show a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of placing long orders for industrial silicon at low prices [4]. - Polysilicon: In the second half of the year, the polysilicon market is in a stage where fundamental logic and "anti - involution" logic alternate. Fundamentally, the expected reduction in electricity prices and increased profits may boost production capacity. However, demand growth is limited, and high inventory pressure persists. If effective industry integration or coordinated production reduction measures are implemented, it may reverse the current situation. It is recommended to focus on the positive spread opportunity between PS2509 - PS2511 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The industrial silicon futures main contract shows a wide - range oscillation, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 34.5%, a daily decline of 0.19%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of current volatility of 96.3%. The main contract's closing price was 8785 yuan/ton, with a 1.04% increase; trading volume was 1,416,898 lots, down 3.87%; and open interest was 396,653 lots, down 1.55% [2][12]. - The SI09 - 11 spread was 90 yuan/ton, unchanged; the SI11 - 12 spread was - 290 yuan/ton, down 9.43% [14]. Spot Data - Spot prices of industrial silicon in various regions have increased, such as the East China 553 at 9150 yuan/ton, up 1.67%, and the East China 421 at 9500 yuan/ton, up 2.15%. The East China 553 basis was 365 yuan/ton, up 19.67%, and the East China 421 basis was 715 yuan/ton, up 18.18%. The East China 421 - 553 spread was 350 yuan/ton, up 16.67% [16]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total industrial silicon warehouse receipts were 50,258 lots, up 29.69%. Warehouse receipts in various delivery warehouses showed different changes, such as a 6.59% increase in the Tianjin delivery warehouse to 10.1 million tons [22][23]. Polysilicon Futures Data - The polysilicon futures main contract also shows a wide - range oscillation, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 44.05%, a daily decline of 0.94%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of current volatility of 82.57%. The main contract's closing price was 42,470 yuan/ton, with a 1.69% increase; trading volume was 565,746 lots, up 20.29%; and open interest was 69,821 lots, down 10.86% [2][25]. - The PS08 - 09 spread was 350 yuan/ton, up 9.38%; the PS08 - 11 spread was 1530 yuan/ton, down 5.56%; the PS09 - 11 spread was 1180 yuan/ton, down 9.23%; the PS11 - 12 spread was - 2270 yuan/ton, down 5.34% [27]. Spot Data - Spot prices of polysilicon showed little change. For example, the N - type polysilicon price index remained at 43.45 yuan/kg, and the particle silicon price decreased by 1.15% to 43 yuan/kg [32]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts Data - The polysilicon main contract basis was 980 yuan/ton, down 41.84%; the PS2509 contract basis was 1330 yuan/ton, down 33.7%; the PS2511 contract basis was 2510 yuan/ton, down 24.05%. Warehouse receipts in various regions remained unchanged [39][41].